NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: Red Wall tracker
The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.
The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15)
The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.
The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15)
As before, we polled a representative sample of voters on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 and 2016 vote in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour in 2019.
The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)
The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)
That means it’s CON 47% (+6 on Nov), LAB 43% (-4).
In 2019 the Tories led by 9 points, so this still means a small swing to Labour.
On these numbers, Labour is projected to gain 18 of 45 seats. But CON hold 27, compared to a projected loss of all but 9 seats last time. (3/15)
In 2019 the Tories led by 9 points, so this still means a small swing to Labour.
On these numbers, Labour is projected to gain 18 of 45 seats. But CON hold 27, compared to a projected loss of all but 9 seats last time. (3/15)
Labour have a higher vote share than in 2019, because they are taking one-third of Liberal Democrat votes.
These 'centrist liberals' – who voted Lib Dem because of Brexit and didn’t like Corbyn - are also keeping Labour afloat in national polls. (4/15)
These 'centrist liberals' – who voted Lib Dem because of Brexit and didn’t like Corbyn - are also keeping Labour afloat in national polls. (4/15)
But the Conservatives are winning back people who previously said they were undecided, and winning back defectors from Labour.
16 months into the parliamentary term, only 3% of 2019 Conservatives say they would directly switch to Labour. (5/15)
16 months into the parliamentary term, only 3% of 2019 Conservatives say they would directly switch to Labour. (5/15)
Leadership is the key driver behind Labour’s decline since November.
Boris Johnson has gone from -2% to +8%.
And Keir Starmer is now viewed more negatively than positively in the Red Wall. (6/15)
Boris Johnson has gone from -2% to +8%.
And Keir Starmer is now viewed more negatively than positively in the Red Wall. (6/15)
When asked what their main hesitations are about voting Labour, Red Wall voters express doubts about Keir Starmer, a lack of policies, and the economy.
In November Starmer was a net positive for the Labour Party – he is now increasingly being viewed as a negative. (7/15)
In November Starmer was a net positive for the Labour Party – he is now increasingly being viewed as a negative. (7/15)
What are voters’ main reasons not to vote Labour?
1. It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for (+37% Agree)
2. Labour have played party politics during the coronavirus pandemic (+35% Agree)
3. They have not proven that they would get the debt under control (+33% Agree)
(8/15)
1. It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for (+37% Agree)
2. Labour have played party politics during the coronavirus pandemic (+35% Agree)
3. They have not proven that they would get the debt under control (+33% Agree)
(8/15)
We asked which attributes were most important in leaders, and asked how Boris & Keir measured up
Boris leads on the most important things to voters – “Gets things done” and “Strong”
Keir has a narrow lead on “Competent” and “Fair”, while “Says what they mean” leans Boris (9/15)
Boris leads on the most important things to voters – “Gets things done” and “Strong”
Keir has a narrow lead on “Competent” and “Fair”, while “Says what they mean” leans Boris (9/15)
People have a much-improved view of the Tories.
Competence has swung to CON by 10 points. But the values picture is changing too: people now think the Conservatives are more likely to “address the issues that concern you”, & Lab/Con are level on “Shares your values”. (10/15)
Competence has swung to CON by 10 points. But the values picture is changing too: people now think the Conservatives are more likely to “address the issues that concern you”, & Lab/Con are level on “Shares your values”. (10/15)
And the Conservatives now lead on all but 3 issues.
They are up on “Controlling immigration”, where they lead by 22 points, & the pandemic. They are also seen as better on education.
They are behind on housing & cost of living, and Labour has a 1-point lead on the NHS (11/15)
They are up on “Controlling immigration”, where they lead by 22 points, & the pandemic. They are also seen as better on education.
They are behind on housing & cost of living, and Labour has a 1-point lead on the NHS (11/15)
Popularity stakes. Rishi Sunak still the most popular politician in the Red Wall (though down 6). Priti Patel, Nicola Sturgeon, and Michael Gove are the least popular, though Priti Patel has seen an increase of 14 net points to her rating (but still viewed v negatively). (12/15)
The Red Wall liked the Budget and said it was “fair”
They support the corporation tax rise (+27%) and also the freezing of income tax thresholds (+22%)
Striking fact: *2019 Labour voters* in the Red Wall back both the corp tax rise (+29%) and the threshold freeze (+8%) (13/15)
They support the corporation tax rise (+27%) and also the freezing of income tax thresholds (+22%)
Striking fact: *2019 Labour voters* in the Red Wall back both the corp tax rise (+29%) and the threshold freeze (+8%) (13/15)
It is not all good news for the Tories. Concerns remain about whether the party is for the rich. They could face issues on NHS pay, which is the second-most prominent reason not to vote Tory (yes, behind Barnard Castle).
The 1% pay rise for NHS staff is opposed by 56%. (14/15)
The 1% pay rise for NHS staff is opposed by 56%. (14/15)
And remember, they are still forecast to lose seats on 2019 in this poll.
Full report & tables of this 2nd wave of our Red Wall tracker, giving updates on these pivotal seats, at jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall
Watch the @channel4news report with @GaryGibbonC4 at 7pm on C4 (15/15)
Full report & tables of this 2nd wave of our Red Wall tracker, giving updates on these pivotal seats, at jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall
Watch the @channel4news report with @GaryGibbonC4 at 7pm on C4 (15/15)
Coverage of @JLPartnersPolls and @Channel4News poll of the Red Wall in Politico Playbook this morning by @alexwickham
Also featured in the @Daily_Express express.co.uk/news/politics/… and @LabourList labourlist.org/2021/03/anas-s…
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