Back in the rising channel once again, this time after a hedgie load up and over 150k calls expiring ITM last week. $PROG is still moving aggressively toward a steady climb and short squeeze.
Technicals looking good
Plenty of calls on the chain for this Friday, but pretty modest in comparison to last week. This is a very weak gamma ramp relative to that.
We are still waiting for unhedged calls to be delivered today and tomorrow, so we can see some significant buying today....
... but we will see how it plays out on the charts.
Shorts were not covering last week, which means they were most likely trying to return and re-borrow shares that were failing to deliver.
And the cycle continues lolol😂
We can see that the short interest dropped, but if we compare the previous short reports, we see the ratio has adjusted retroactively.
This means the float has increased, which is supported by all major brokerages.
This was likely due to the exercising of warrants and...
Convertible debt securities that were previously issued and converted by their holders.
Despite what others may say, this is minor bullish news because these were already issued, were already being used as located shares for shorting, and have been exercised...
... which adds to $PROG's already significant balance sheet. The conversion of debt securities means that $PROG no longer owes their counter party the loan for which those securities were exchanged and no longer needs to make any premiums/ principle payments.
$PROG'S debt has been one of its major anchors to its success, but thanks to a healthier balance sheet, reduction of loans, and some new revenue streams incoming through its precludia product and speculative partnerships, the fundamental case for our is looking stronger each day.
While we are expecting another run this week, remember that anything can happen, and that we are waiting on that major partnership announcement as the catalyst for our next major move.
As always patience is 🔑
But you already knew that.
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$PROG shorts and market makers are telegraphing a move to the upside. To everyone who is freaking out and calling this a dead play, you're looking at consolidation. Calm TF down...
Wyckoff Accumulation final phase of consolidation is following trend.
Market makers and call sellers still have until Tuesday to make their deliveries. This activity demonstrates an engineered sell-off. They need panic selling in order to scoop up shares on a discount before the next leg up.
The fewer who sell, the less we move to the downside.
We're going to go through some volatility this week as they play their games. T+2 to deliver options and an additional T+6 for market makers to close the outstanding FTDs that result.
Have patience and let the algorithms burn themselves out. They're operating on auto pilot...
I'm going to cover one last item on $PROG today. I was looking at the Unusual Whales FLOW that Hootmoney posted, and there is definitely something happening here.
The OI on $5 and $7.5 calls for $PROG went absolutely nuts in the afternoon today, and I only just noticed.
Almost all of the bearish volume came from selling call options at the end of the day, which I STRONGLY suspect is being done in order to quickly secure premium and scalp some cash before the options expire.
This is a very common action, but for it to happen in these numbers...
... holy shit. There are 111,295 calls OTM on $PROG between $5 and $7.50
That's a combined 11.13M shares on the table.
Those weren't there this morning.
A fair amount of these may be retail, but many times more are likely coming from market makers & HFs.
This error happens so frequently in trading that it has actually caused squeeze events because a stock rallied, and in the FOMO scramble, other stocks with similar tickers have rocketed with them.
This is a really good way to lose money just because you didn't spell check your ticker symbol.
Make sure you know where your money is going before you hit that buy button.
$PROG OTC/Darkpool activity indicates that algos and institutions are the main responsible parties for this price action today.
We continue to see tons of selling pressure routing to the exchanges whilst.
Reminder to use directed market orders to send your busy to the exchange.
This is a speculative explanation, but I have noticed that because of the plethora of available shares in dark pools, it seems likely that MMs will buy large sums of shares in DPs to grab an inventory of shares on the cheap.
This allows MMs to fulfill buy orders from their inventory instead of buying on the exchange, preventing the NBBO from being affected. Meanwhile, they can route any sells directly to the exchanges on a selective basis to create the illusion of massive selling volume.