Hey everybody 👋
This thread is to address the dilution that $PROG just announced in their new SEC filing.
I'll preface this by saying very bluntly that I AM NOT SELLING and help bring you the facts so that you can make an informed decision on your own.
Lets get started.
This thread is to address the dilution that $PROG just announced in their new SEC filing.
I'll preface this by saying very bluntly that I AM NOT SELLING and help bring you the facts so that you can make an informed decision on your own.
Lets get started.
Here is the filing so you can read along:
investors.progenity.com/static-files/0…
The first thing is that $PROG expressed they'll dilute by exactly 18,404,908 shares for $4.89 per share, at an aggregate total of $90M.
The filing also explains the previous week's increase in outstanding shares
investors.progenity.com/static-files/0…
The first thing is that $PROG expressed they'll dilute by exactly 18,404,908 shares for $4.89 per share, at an aggregate total of $90M.
The filing also explains the previous week's increase in outstanding shares
As we suspected, warrants and convertible notes were exercised in addition to the 13.3M shares that were sold on October 5-9.
The filing explains that their outstanding shares have increased to 197.253M including this new offering which will be a public offering.
The filing explains that their outstanding shares have increased to 197.253M including this new offering which will be a public offering.
MANY of these shares were already set aside for issuance due to the sale of warrants and convertible notes since October. The total $90M to be collected from this additional ~18M offering is going to bring in much needed capital for $PROG in the coming weeks.
Although I disagree with their timing, I suspect that Progenity is gearing up to meet the new financial requirements for product production of it's new products.
Remember that they were assigned patents for it's Precludia rule out test, and it's new oral drug delivery systems.
Remember that they were assigned patents for it's Precludia rule out test, and it's new oral drug delivery systems.
Given that $PROG is preparing to enter the market with multiple new partnerships, I am expecting the announcement to come soon on the coattails of news that they are prepared to begin mass production of their new products in pursuit of that partnership.
I'm especially confident because $PROG set a share price of $4.89 rather than below the current market value as they did back on Oct 5 with a price of $1.50 at a time when the stock was trading above $2.20.
Inevitably, this news is going to create a dip in the price, which is a natural reaction to the news of dilution. Though I'm not particularly pleased with the timing of the dilution, it's no worse than I expected, & it is preemptive to their new product's entrance into the market
I also don't think it's a coincidence that $PROG announced this dilution after more than 150k calls (15M shares) expired in the money last Friday. I have a strong suspicion that SOMEONE reached out to $PROG's executive team directly with an offer to buy shares.
This is the top mentioned stock on stocktwits, reddit, and twitter right now. Everyone is talking about $PROG alongside $GME and $AMC. We're in the same fight together for transparency and fairness in the markets.
I don't believe this dilution is just a convenient coincidence.
I don't believe this dilution is just a convenient coincidence.
Once again, I'm reminding everyone that I am not selling. The last time $PROG announced a sale of shares, it dipped temporarily & immediately rebounded as soon as the offering completed 4 days later. We're traded at 10x the volume of this announced dilution two trading days ago
I understand how we all feel about dilution, that it sucks, feels unfair, and like the company is selling out from under us.
It isn't like that. This company is breaching a new market with new products that are going to change the field of medicine forever.
It requires patience
It isn't like that. This company is breaching a new market with new products that are going to change the field of medicine forever.
It requires patience
In the meanwhile, I'm just letting everyone know that I have no intention of selling a single share throughout this dilution.
The short thesis on $PROG today depends on panic selling to escape from their positions. The fundamental thesis has imploded.
For now I'm just waiting.
The short thesis on $PROG today depends on panic selling to escape from their positions. The fundamental thesis has imploded.
For now I'm just waiting.
We still have T+2 settlement from Friday options expiration coming due tomorrow, so we'll see how things shake out between this dilution and those deliveries.
See ya'll in the morning
See ya'll in the morning
@threadreaderapp unroll please and thank you 🙂
P.S.
Since this is an ATM offering, these shares will be sold at discretionary times rather than all-at-once.
It's worth mentioning this since people are likely unfamiliar.
The company can choose when/how to sell these shares, but are targeting a $4.89 price/sh
Since this is an ATM offering, these shares will be sold at discretionary times rather than all-at-once.
It's worth mentioning this since people are likely unfamiliar.
The company can choose when/how to sell these shares, but are targeting a $4.89 price/sh
It's worth mentioning that $PROG has set itself a floor on its price, likely because they see upside in the future.
Evidently I wasn't clear enough about that, as evidenced by all the people screaming at me over it...🙄
That being said, I'm not worried. Still holding.
Evidently I wasn't clear enough about that, as evidenced by all the people screaming at me over it...🙄
That being said, I'm not worried. Still holding.
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