The news about the planned Russian military attack on Ukraine end January-early February continues to come from all kind of sources. You don't announce a war 3 months ahead unless you enjoy enormous overweight as the US did in the Gulf and Iraq wars.
Instead, I think the Kremlin is checking the many weaknesses of the West and will hit where these weaknesses ar the greatest, and there are so many soft targets or low-hanging fruits.
Closest to my interests, Europe has made so many mistakes in its energy policies, so why not let them fail: Too small reserves, uncertain supply contracts, vulnerable markets leading to both shortages & high prices, ultimately breaking up the EU market model.
In Ukraine, the Zelensky government is embarrassed by Wagnergate and it has been unable to offer any credible defense. The Ukrainian government seems set to weaken. The Kolomoisky & Firtash dramas can only improve the Russian situation. Ultimately, can Zelensky handle this?
Putin wants to have Nord Stream 2 swiftly certified, but by doing so just too blatantly, I would not be surprised if he has blown his hand. After all, Germany is about to get a new, more innocent, government (which I appreciate).
Putin has so many other intrigues going on, such as hurting Moldova, forcing Serbia into the Russian orbit, cutting off Viktor Orban from the EU, that he is just overloading his hand, being too clever by half.
My optimistic guess is:
1. NS2 will never be certified for many good reasons.
2. The EU will reinforce its gas and electricity market policies of 2009 with more reserves.
3. Russia will lose the confidence of its EU gas clients.
Extortion is not a good business model.
1. NS2 will never be certified for many good reasons.
2. The EU will reinforce its gas and electricity market policies of 2009 with more reserves.
3. Russia will lose the confidence of its EU gas clients.
Extortion is not a good business model.
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