Gives another meaning to 'blow-off top'.😎
Of course, a naive linear/ deterministic mindset will always struggle with the mapping out of various possibilities aka risk management. The paradigm is strong.😎
What could be the explanation for such a possible double-top?

A more liquid/ mature market leads to reducing macro volatility.

A *qualitative* difference that would question the purely quantitative assumptions [simple comparisons of cycles].
Of course the shorter trend is currently still up unless broken to the downside...
edit: until

Those expecting tea-leave readings - TA on the shorter term time-frames is more descriptive; on the longer-term time-frame, more prescriptive [though still fallible]... as you have more solid trends to work with, not to mention models.
As I've said a few times, short-term volatility is a drunken dog... but one on a long leash.

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More from @davthewave

23 Nov
Experimental TA incoming.

Has anyone drawn an ascending triangle yet?

Heavy white dotted lines - connects previous base to the next base and through to the top.Experimental TA incoming.
In this metric, there is room for a higher high [eventually] within the price range as configured.

A theory [however seemingly wacky] gains credence and solidity when predictions made earlier eventuate.

The idea in the first chart above was first floated over 2 years ago -

Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
Objectively, a positive picture, and yet many would view it in utterly negative terms.... due no doubt to buying high. Image
It's simple mean of prices that gives a regression curve around which price oscillates.

What's interesting is a changing dynamic [that denotes a maturing market imo] - price has stayed above this mean for quite some time.
The contraction of prices around that regression curve corroborated by the MACD on both weekly and monthly time-frames.

What does it represent? The capitalization of a nascent currency imo. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
21 Nov
Reminder: BTC is in a secular bull market. Don't confuse realism with bearism.🙂
Perceptions are relative. When you're used to seeing hyper-bull posts, realism will *appear* bearish. The reality though is realism is bullish... even with consolidation.
The LGC represents both this secular bull market and the wall of worry that all bull markets climb.

The flaw of hyper-bull posts was the suggestion that it would all be a walk in the park.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
The dynamic of this market is starting to now look qualitatively different. What was before an idea [due to increased liquidity and a maturing market] is beginning to be confirmed in the price action. All good.
The point of this post is that, from the macro perspective, even if we were to see an extended consolidation from here this need not be though of as a 'bear market'. That kind of outlook [fear] belongs to a more immature phase of the market along with talk of mulit-year cycles.
As envisaged near a year back -…
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Big picture stuff.

Even if price carried on up in the channel at this rate, it would not hit 100K by December.
I'll always answer the odd question or comment that I think might be genuine. Other posts that are obviously boorish or trollish, I'll be blocking for a few months.
For those overly concerned that my realist charts serve to restrain buying at high levels, don't worry. My small account is going to have next to no affect on the market [prob holds for CT altogther]. This worry may actually only be a form of paranoia.😉
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
A few more weeks, and you'll have the longest correction within what most term as a cyclical/ bull run up. Portending a double-top?
This would also work in with the absence of a blow-off top that confounded so many. This kind of new price action may reflect an increasingly liquid and maturing market...
Model of the LGC primarily. Add to that, the consolidating monythly MACD, and reasonable to think double top.
Read 5 tweets

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