Of course, a naive linear/ deterministic mindset will always struggle with the mapping out of various possibilities aka risk management. The paradigm is strong.😎
What could be the explanation for such a possible double-top?
A more liquid/ mature market leads to reducing macro volatility.
A *qualitative* difference that would question the purely quantitative assumptions [simple comparisons of cycles].
Of course the shorter trend is currently still up unless broken to the downside...
edit: until
Those expecting tea-leave readings - TA on the shorter term time-frames is more descriptive; on the longer-term time-frame, more prescriptive [though still fallible]... as you have more solid trends to work with, not to mention models.
As I've said a few times, short-term volatility is a drunken dog... but one on a long leash.
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Reminder: BTC is in a secular bull market. Don't confuse realism with bearism.🙂
Perceptions are relative. When you're used to seeing hyper-bull posts, realism will *appear* bearish. The reality though is realism is bullish... even with consolidation.
The LGC represents both this secular bull market and the wall of worry that all bull markets climb.
The flaw of hyper-bull posts was the suggestion that it would all be a walk in the park.
The dynamic of this market is starting to now look qualitatively different. What was before an idea [due to increased liquidity and a maturing market] is beginning to be confirmed in the price action. All good.
The point of this post is that, from the macro perspective, even if we were to see an extended consolidation from here this need not be though of as a 'bear market'. That kind of outlook [fear] belongs to a more immature phase of the market along with talk of mulit-year cycles.
Even if price carried on up in the channel at this rate, it would not hit 100K by December.
I'll always answer the odd question or comment that I think might be genuine. Other posts that are obviously boorish or trollish, I'll be blocking for a few months.
For those overly concerned that my realist charts serve to restrain buying at high levels, don't worry. My small account is going to have next to no affect on the market [prob holds for CT altogther]. This worry may actually only be a form of paranoia.😉
A few more weeks, and you'll have the longest correction within what most term as a cyclical/ bull run up. Portending a double-top?
This would also work in with the absence of a blow-off top that confounded so many. This kind of new price action may reflect an increasingly liquid and maturing market...
Model of the LGC primarily. Add to that, the consolidating monythly MACD, and reasonable to think double top.