Germany's 🔴🟢🟡 coalition agreement, some key points: Greens get foreign ministry & new economy-climate mega ministry, FDP get finance ministry. Deal includes coal exit "ideally" by 2030, €12 min wage, 400k new homes/year, expanded state-based investments in green, digital etc.
Liberalising social policies are an area of broad common ground between the three parties, and it shows. Coalition deal includes cannabis legalisation, allowing multiple-citizenship, faster naturalisation, voting age lowered to 16, strengthened reproductive & LGBT+ rights.
The coalition deal title "Dare more progress" is a clear echo of Willy Brandt's "Dare more democracy"
The transformation of German-ness in short space of time is remarkable. As late as 1990s the law treated it almost exclusively as something inherited. Under the 🔴🟢🟡 deal some migrants will be eligible for citizenship after just 3 years. Truly, Germany as a "migration country".
The coalition agreement also contains some promising signs for the euro zone, sharply summarised by @lucasguttenberg in this thread:

Annalena Baerbock of Greens, in line to be foreign minister, talks of paradigm changes in foreign policy with greater focus on values. Reflected in elements of coalition deal eg explicit reference to China's threat to Taiwan.
More details on ministries. Alongside chancellery, 🔴 get interior, defence, health, labour, international development, housing. Alongside foreign + economy/climate, 🟢 get environment, family/youth, agriculture. Alongside finance, 🟡 get transport/digital, education, justice.
Few more policy details: 80% renewable energies by 2030, introduction of equity pensions, minimum pension stable at 48% of average wages, R&D spending goal of 3.5% of GDP, Germany to be observer to Treaty the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, but continued NATO nuclear sharing.
Some questions as to how much this is all pie in the sky. Past performance no guarantee of future results etc but last two governments delivered about 80% of their original coalition agreements by end of term.
Write-up on the @NewStatesman shortly...

And we will be making a special follow-up episode of the Germany Elects podcast to discuss the coalition deal, the new government and the road ahead for 🇩🇪 - out in the week of 6 December.

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More from @JeremyCliffe

19 Sep
With a week to go until the 🇩🇪 election, the 3rd & final TV debate is about to start. Time is running out for CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet to regain the lead.

More on his woes and the "Merkel factor" in our latest @NewStatesman Germany Elects podcast:…
The snapshot from our @NewStatesman poll tracker: the SPD lead under Olaf Scholz has stabilised at just under 26%, CDU/CSU under Armin Laschet just over 21% and Greens under Annalena Baerbock at just under 16%.…
Here's what that would mean for Bundestag seat-shares: six politically and arithmetically viable coalitions (albeit some more politically viable than others).…
Read 37 tweets
19 Sep
There’s inconsistency on both sides in the #AUKUS row. Anglos complain France not reliable / committed in Indo-Pacific yet begrudge its offense at being sidelined in that very arena; French preach European strategic autonomy yet are appalled when Anglos take them at their word.
Better to see AUKUS as the poorly handled realisation of new basic realities. UK and Aus both have strong impetus (Brexit & geography respectively) to move in lockstep with US on China policy; France & EU have grounds to seek a more nuanced form of alignment with US positions.
Recognising those differences, and the inevitable pluralism of any post-hegemonic Western alliance (“Westishness” as I’ve called this in @NewStatesman), would be a good first step to managing them more constructively in future and thus moving on from the AUKUS row.
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
The 2nd 🇩🇪 TV debate (of 3) is about to start. Backdrop: SPD lead under Scholz has stabilised; CDU/CSU fightback under Laschet is running out of time; Greens under Baerbock haven't broken through.

Much more on the SPD surge on our Germany Elects podcast:…
Opening question begins with coalition options. Laschet barrels in with his favourite talking point (that Scholz would bring the socialist Left party into power). Baerbock gives nuanced reply on similarities (social justice policies) and differences (foreign policy) with Left.
Scholz gives his stock answer - almost word-for-word his reply in debate 1. Doesn't rule out a deal with Left but stresses importance of foreign and defence policy.

As before: Scholz would prefer not to govern with Left but wants to maximise leverage in coalition talks.
Read 30 tweets
29 Aug
The 1st of 3 TV debates between Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU) & Annalena Baerbock (Green) is about to begin.

Election is in exactly four weeks (26 September). Background, discussion & more on our @NewStatesman podcast series Germany Elects:…
Election is very open, with the top three parties vying for first place. Some 5 different coalitions after election are currently arithmetically conceivable. Momentum is with SPD, so onus tonight is on Laschet and Baerbock to change the narrative.
Warm-up question. Each is invited to criticise the others, but all largely duck the question (bar an oblique dig at Scholz over SPD climate policies from Baerbock) and instead set out their stalls.
Read 37 tweets
28 Aug
🤯 🤯 🤯

INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag puts SPD on 24% and CDU/CSU on 21%, its worst ever result in an INSA poll and joint-worst poll result ever.

The stakes ahead of first TV debate between Scholz, Laschet and Baerbock tomorrow night could hardly be higher...
Though this ought to keep SPDler feet on the ground: INSA poll also shows slip in Scholz's previously rising numbers in the preferred-chancellor stakes (sometimes a leading indicator for voting intention), with "none of the above" retaking the lead

...which means we can keep using the excellent German word Wahlkrimi ("election thriller" ie a tight election race with the suspense of a crime novel).
Read 4 tweets
17 Jul
German president Steinmeier delivers a sombre speech about help for communities devastated by floods while in background CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet appears to laugh himself silly about some joke:

There are many CDUers, including on Laschet’s own centrist wing, who fear he’s ultimately a natural small-town mayor who is out of his depth as frontrunner to succeed Merkel. Others counter that his jovial, folksy style is his strength. This clip will strengthen the former camp.
Another theory this may strengthen is that Laschet has mixed feelings about being chancellor candidate at all. I understand he was talked into running to block right-winger Merz, and only after that point came to like the idea. Deep down, does he really want to be chancellor?
Read 8 tweets

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