Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
Nov 24, 2021 • 22 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
What is the Status Quo of the EU gas crisis?

A short thread in charts on why we are here & where the EU gas crisis is aheading next.

Summary: EU gas security is a prayer, not a policy!

1/...
As of today, EU gas storage tanks are 72% filled. This is WELL below its 5-year averages.

2/...
Expressed in Terra Watt Hours (TWh), the EU has 809 TWh of storage as at 21 November 2021.

For perspective: In the winter 2017/18, the EU consumed 770 TWh from 1 Nov 2017 - 31 March 2018.
Gas storage couldn't go that low bc pipeline systems needs to stay under pressure.

3/...
There are three MAIN reasons why EU storage tanks are well below their averages at the start of the winter season. There are smaller reasons which we disregard.

1. Gazprom did not fill its EU storage tanks in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.

4/...
The 2nd reason is that EU produced 12% less gas when compared to 2019 (pre-Covid) due to NL's Groningen field reduction (quota production due to earthquates) & natural field declines in UK. These declines are structural, not seasonal. Only Norway re-invests in production.

5/...
The 3rd reason: 14% less LNG imports when compared seasonally. Is that structural? It depends! Fact is that Asia will continue to try to out-bid the EU for EVERY SINGLE marginal LNG tanker as its natural gas demand needs to replace coal. Maybe @OKalleklev wants to comment?

6/...
So let us now look at how the EU is withdrawing its gas from a seasonal perspective.

Answer: We are withdrawing gas quickly from a 5-year average perspective.

7/...
Is that overcompensated by over-proportational injection rates for the time of the season. Answer: not at all...!

8/...
Who is withdrawing gas faster than usual. France, the 2nd largest gas consumer, certainly is.

9/...
But Italy is also quick to withdraw seasonally.

10/...
Germany is below average for now. But winter has now arrived in the south. So this may well change rather quickly.

11/...
Austria, the gas hub for Central & Eastern Europe is also increasing withdrawals at a fast clip now.

12/...
So, going forward, the only thing that matters for EU gas is the weather forecast. If the weather is colder than 2017/18, TTF will go literally to the moon from here bc demand must be destructed.

What is the forecast right now? For Central Europe, as of today the forecast below
North West Europe? Slightly below average temps (red line vs green line).

14/...
The Nordics? About average cold, with an above average mid-December.

15/...
Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain, et al)...below average cold for next 35 days.

16/..
In sum, withdrawals are ahead while weather indicates avg cold. Yet, TTF will not calm due storage % & price convergence with Asia (marginal LNG gas barrel). If weather forecast go below avg, TTF will go higher.

17/17 (thx, pls share)
Just in case you are not familiar with EU gas numbers, here some help in billion cubic meters - BCM (35x more than cubic feet):

#natgas #EU
Context: EU = 540bcm market; US = 950bcm; Asia = 700bcm going to 1200bcm by 2040.
Point is: Of the big 3, ONLY US has excess gas. Both EU & Asia depend on pipeline & LNG imports from Russia, Qatar, Africa & Australia. Gas crisis = a structural deficit crisis!

#LNG
So now that u understand that the EU/Asian gas crisis has many structural elements and is not going away, potentially ever, here is one way to express the view as an educated investor…
By the by, the looming Russian-Ukrainian conflict does not help to calm TTF due to existing pipeline system - ex Nord Stream (Baltic Sea) & Yamal (Belarus) - relying on Ukraine as transit hub to bring natgas from Russia to EU.

Below a EU pipeline map...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Alexander Stahel 🌻

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Dec 5
Oil forecasts for 2025 have a wide range of outcomes, from balanced to a surplus of 4mbpd (IEA). Which one is it?

I’ve counted too many barrels over the years to engage in the debate. The oil market is dynamic while forecasts are static by nature.

But…

1/n
…we know that…

1) oil on water (includes floating storage) and oil in transit well surpassed Covid levels.

Part of it reflects inefficiency of the sanctioned Russian & Iranian oil trade as well as the recent US sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil.

Part of it is an outright bearish oil market = too many barrels chasing too few buyers -> needs lower prices.

2/n: Oil in transitImage
2) Weak Chinese petroleum product consumption:

China is in recession due to its property bust and despite the CCPs desire to steer clear of it by forcing every other industry to build what isn’t required domestically (overcapacity issue) and then dump goods onto global trade.

Because of the latter most observers still don’t get the painful economic status China is in. But China is in it.

Also, the CCP prefers coal fuelled transportation as well as LNG truck driving for the purpose of geopolitics.

Both requires less, not more, diesel and gasoline in 2026 vs 2025. Jet and Naphtha are different story but won’t drive oil buying by refineries => Oil demand by 2nd largest economy globally is bearish. Accept.

However, the CCP may take the absurd to the next level in 2026 and force refineries to build even more floating-roof oil tank storage (as part of meeting an artificial Soviet 2.0 plan within its Investment-led Growth Model) in which case refineries may buy more oil next year, but not for the purpose of producing more petroleum products but solely for storages. If they do so, however, their crude oil buying will be EXTREMELY price sensitive.

Time and State companies oil quotas will tell.

PS: If u care to understand China’s property bust structurally, here is a link to my 7 part Stack series. It remains as valid then as now.

3/n
 open.substack.com/pub/alexanders…
Read 13 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 4
Let me add a few more facts & figures and some high level observations about the United States goods trade deficits with Switzerland of some $20bn annually.

A thread

1/8
Upfront and from a Swiss patriotic view:

The Swiss government and certain companies have little reason to lament—these tariffs were foreseeable.

Yes, the real issue is their scale: 39% compared to Europe’s 15%, which clearly puts some Swiss exports at a competitive disadvantage. It is what it is.

And while I still believe this situation is fixable, we must be prepared for the worst-case scenario to persist—or even worsen, with potential new tariffs on pharmaceuticals (currently exempted).

So, who is at fault? As some of us learned in officer school during military service: the Bundesrat misjudged the fundamentals of strategic assessment—Lagebeurteilung (judgement of enemy situation). That needs to be addressed. Trump wants balanced trade. Address it. Period.

History is not kind to those who choose dreams over reality—or to the weak who paint themselves as victims.

Therefore, whether Trump’s trade deficit logic makes any sense whatsoever (which it clearly doesn't in the Swiss case) is beside the point.

He’s the president. He has communicated his views clearly and consistently for decades. Adapt. Take the man seriously.

Trustworthy or not, as lamented by President Keller Sutter is none of our business.

2/n @SecScottBessent @BobgonzaleBob
Let’s now take a closer look at Switzerland’s goods trade surplus with the United States.

At Burggraben, we rely on the OEC tool (a paywalled MIT spin-off) for robust global trade data as part of our investment analysis process of all sorts—so we can assess this with confidence. I hope our readers will appreciate the data quality shared herewith for free.

While the annual trade surplus has fluctuated in recent years, the underlying—or let’s call it intrinsic—gap consistently hovers around $20 billion, as the data below will show.

3/nImage
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jun 12
Let’s break down the current Iran–US–Israel situation, based on the latest facts and statements.

1) What’s the @POTUS stance?
Trump has been consistent for years — and reiterated just yesterday: “Iran cannot have the bomb. Period.”

1/n
2) Does Iran already have the bomb?
We don’t know for sure — but here’s what the latest IAEA report says:

🔎 Iran remains in non-compliance with key nuclear commitments. This finding could pave the way for renewed sanctions.

2/n
iaea.org/newscenter/sta…
More concretely, Iran likely enriched some 250kg of HEU stockpiles since 2021. Worse, it also said to adds significant new capacities.

That material so far could quickly be turned into the fuel for the equivalent of 10 bombs, should Iran’s leadership take the political decision to pursue weapons, according to Bloomberg.

3/nImage
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 28
Here is my theory how the major incident - a so called blackout - occurred at 12:30 CET today in the power system of Spain & Portugal:

1/n Image
At the time of the incident, Spain and Portugal operated the grid at very high renewables share of about 66% - i.e solar (55%) and wind (11%; eolica)

2/n Image
Image
While this isn’t unusual for Spain, it does mean that the grid operates with little inertia (resistance to change) during such time. The grid is therefore vulnerable to external effects…!

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 3
On this platform, certain perma bulls keep pushing a bullish crude narrative based on relative U.S. inventories—day after day, for three years now.

Their logic: Total U.S. crude inventories (including the SPR) are at 838 million barrels (orange line), 200 million barrels below the 10-year average → bullish!

Yet, inventories keep falling, and prices remain stuck in a range. Clearly, they are wrong.

1/9 @UrbanKaoboy @Iris62655179 @BrentRuditLeoImage
The problem with their logic?

a) The U.S. is no longer the marginal importer of crude oil—Asia is (or was).

b) U.S. inventories are artificially high on a 10-year average due to the shale boom, which took off in 2014. Shale growth and Covid distort the data, keeping inventories (ex SPR) elevated. So any 5- or 10-year comparison is meaningless—period.

2/n US Crude Oil Inventory ex SPRImage
Including SPRs, the picture looks more normalised - but not tight. But does the US really need 700mb of strategic reserves in 2025? I don't think so.

3/n US Crude Inv incl SPRs Image
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 23
Yesterday, I shared a few thoughts that I’d like to expand on, especially given how volatile the current tariff landscape under this admin has become.

Navigating it isn’t just difficult—it’s nearly impossible to avoid missteps. Hopefully some traders will expand on my thoughts...

1/n
What do we know?

As at 23 March 2025, Comex copper price in New York is trading at 14% premium to LME in London. Buying a tonne of copper in NY costs $11,213 versus 9,842 in London, $1,371 per tonne more than in London.

2/n Image
Why is that? Because of tariff FEARS, not tariffs.

Traders are hedging future risk of potential tariffs on all forms of the raw material, such as cathodes, concentrates, ores, and even scrap. But there aren't such tariffs in place for copper yet (unlike alumnium).

3/n
 fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ta…
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(