Thread by @danielgoyal

Why is Germany’s Covid-19 response killing less civilians than the UK’s?

Germany has not done particularly well. Yet, at a population level their death toll is about half that of the UK.

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#COVID19

And their excess mortality is a fraction of the UK’s:
[UK = 11% excess deaths, Germany = 3%]

What this highlights is that the overall strategy employed by Germany has saved a lot more lives than the UK’s strategy.

And may have saved much more of the economy:

In part this has been by employing more mitigation against community transmission. Lowering the total number of infections:

But even when total case numbers were similar (up to around November 2020), the difference in mortality was stark:

➡️ 14k deaths in Germany.
➡️ 54k deaths in the UK.

It helps that Germany started off with more GPs than the UK:

[Germany has 50% more GPs]

And that Germany have more hospital capacity:

Germany has over 200% more beds per head of population than the UK. (Yes, two-hundred percent more)

UK = 2.4 beds per 1,000 people
Germany = 7.9 beds per 1,000 people.

data.oecd.org/chart/6xk7

More doctors and more space to treat the sick. Perhaps little surprise that less people died.

Perhaps Germans value healthcare more than the Brits:

Germany = 11.38% GDP
UK = 10% GDP

Germany = £4.3k per person per year
UK = £3k per person per year

But, perhaps one of the greatest ‘life-saving’ difference is that Germany took a more (not ideal, but more) PROACTIVE clinical approach to COVID-19 cases. That is, they left LESS patients at home without medical help.

Germany triaged around 85% of patients in the community.
Germany strengthened their healthcare services during the pandemic.
The UK opted not to triage patients at the point of diagnosis and the UK shrunk their health service.

Germany has not done particularly well. We should be discussing Norway and Singapore and trying to emulate their responses. But given the disastrous UK pandemic response and how far away we are from basic international standards, perhaps we should take baby steps.

It is not difficult to save lives and the economy. We just need to do the basics:
▪️identify the sick.
▪️treat the sick.
▪️stop others getting sick.
It's not difficult science to follow.