Germany's new coalition agreement between SPD, the Greens and FDP is quite detailed and specific with 177 pages.
The long foreign policy chapter is appropriate called: "Germany's Responsibility for Europe and the World" spd.de/fileadmin/Doku…
1. The US is not criticized but almost missing, mentioned 9 times, transatlantic 7 and NATO 11 times, while it is all about Europe, cited 254 times. Clearly, the Germans dare not rely upon the US any longer. Within the EU, two countries are praised, France and Poland.
2. The emphasis lies on values: democracy, peace, welfare, freedom, human rights, rule of law and multilateralism. But also on a "strategically sovereign EU." The coalition wants to develop and strengthen the EU in all conceivable regards.
3. The coalition wants a real common EU foreign, security, and defense policy and the establishment of a real EU foreign minister.
4. The coalition supports the EU accession process of the six West Balkan states and calls for the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia shall be able to get closer to the EU through reforms, not very clear.
5. The coalition is fully committed to NATO and the transatlantic alliance. It fudges the spending target by calling for 3% of GDP to be spent on international actions (including 0.7% of GDP on development aid) in the long term.
6. "As long as nuclear arms play a role in NATO's strategic concept, Germany has in interest in participating in the strategic discussions and planning processes." The Greens have clearly not vetoed nuclear arms in Germany.
7. Nord Stream 2 is not mentioned in the agreement. The support for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, including both Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and the maintenance of sanctions on Russia is strong.
8. "We emphatically criticize the extensive restrictions of civil and democratic freedoms and expect that the Russian government" gives the Russian civil society unhindered contacts with their German partners.
9. Similarly, "We stand on the side of the people in Belarus... The Russian involvement in favor of Lukashenko is unacceptable."
This is quite a clear and well considered policy line.
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Russia is dangerous because it is a declining power, but it has disproportionately strong military power. It has an obvious incentive to use this power before it loses more military heft because its economic stagnation caused by authoritarian kleptocracy & Western sanctions.
Remember that World War I was started by Austria-Hungary, a declining power, that declared war on Serbia just because of a terrorist killing. Pompous declining powers tend to become risk loving, just like investors close to bankruptcy.
The obvious response to a declining power is to deter it with convincing military force & political will. Right now, Ukraine is the battle front. The US, UK & Canada seem to have got the message, but are France & Germany fully aware as yet?
Noteworthy from Zelensky's 4th press conference:
"No alliance negotiations with Kolomoisky already for two years" = did so earlier.
Defense of Yermak as usual, his deputy Tatarov suspected of corruption, and Ruslan Demchenko, 1st dep sec of National Defense & Security Council responsible for intelligence, that journalist Yuriy Butusov claims is Russian agent.
Very weak statements on the National Bank of Ukraine. Zelensky claimed the situation was bad before (when it was excellent), but it is still not good (after he has weakened it). No clear statement on governor Shevchenko.
The news about the planned Russian military attack on Ukraine end January-early February continues to come from all kind of sources. You don't announce a war 3 months ahead unless you enjoy enormous overweight as the US did in the Gulf and Iraq wars.
Instead, I think the Kremlin is checking the many weaknesses of the West and will hit where these weaknesses ar the greatest, and there are so many soft targets or low-hanging fruits.
Closest to my interests, Europe has made so many mistakes in its energy policies, so why not let them fail: Too small reserves, uncertain supply contracts, vulnerable markets leading to both shortages & high prices, ultimately breaking up the EU market model.
Suddenly, Washington's many pro-Putin advocates have presented a flow of articles arguing that the West should stop supporting Ukraine & instead listening to Putin's wise advice. One of the worst is Rand's Samuel Charap, so let us check his arguments. politico.com/news/magazine/…
1. Charap claims that the US policy of offering "sticks to Moscow and carrots to Kyiv" has failed. Western sanctions and mainly US military support stopped the Russian military expansion in Ukraine from February 2015. That is not bad, but Charap clearly wants more for Moscow...
2. Charap continues "The risk of a major war seems real enough to justify a new U.S. approach. The current policy of threatening punishments and bolstering Kyiv might be morally justified, but it is highly unlikely to alter Putin’s calculus." Charap wants the US to abandon peace?
I am amazed by all these pro-Putin characters in Washington who know little or nothing about Russia & even less about Ukraine. They call for Western appeasement with Russia & agitate against Western sanctions against Russia & military support for Ukraine. They are all wrong.
1. Ukraine persisted against Putin's explicit claim that he would capture half the country (April 17, 2014) for two reasons: A. Ukraine's impressive military defense. B. United Western sanctions against Russia from July 2014. Our report with @MSnegovaya. atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-resea…
2. Repeatedly, Russia has mobilized its troops around Ukraine, but on the most important occasion, key Ukraine allies, notably the US, has raised their voice & Russia has stayed away. My sense is that is the case right now. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Putin gave his annual speech to the Russian ambassadors today. To my mind, it is the most defensive speech I have read of Putin. All is wrong, but naturally nothing is his fault. en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
1. The top concern is Ukraine: "Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us...Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy format agreements."
2. Alas, "[Germany and France] are indulging the current Kiev leadership’s course on dismantling the [Minsk agreements], which, unfortunately, has led the talks and the settlement itself into a dead end...it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts..."