Thread by @Rpshahmemorial1

Long thread 1) There is this fear about the new Botswana/ Nu/ B1.1.159 variant but let's delve into why is this fear?? The 4 cases they found in Botswana were all vaccinated.So what??Breakthrough happens all the time,we underestimate incidence @hjelle_brian ctd)

Ctd2) This variant marked in blue is coming up , so what?? These variants will come and go. Ist it was the Wuhan strain in Grey , then the Beta ( SA strain in Green , then the Delta in Red and now may be the Botswana variant in Blue ( B1.1.529) @MoHFW_INDIA, @mansukhmandviya ctd)

Ctd3) For the virus and also the vaccines ( Pfizer/ Moderna/ AZ) the spike protein is the most important and that is where the maximum risk is . The Delta had 2 changes in spike proteins Receptor Binding Domain, the Beta had 3 while the Nu has 10 , so there is a real risk ctd)

Ctd4) The risk is the vaccine may no longer be efficient,so may be the Monoclonals that we have currently, also there is a real risk that the immune response may not be as good, simply put the variant may erase part of the immune memory that we gained from prior infection ctd)

Ctd5)But isnt that fear overhyped , probably not since there are some good people working on simulations and that these stimulations tell us that we need to preempt our responses ctd)

https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005676842184705?s=20

Ctd6) while there are voices to stop flights ,which we have raised as well , there is also a need to support Africa if we wish this variant to stay in Africa till we update vaccines. That means international support @WHO, @DrAxelrod_WHO, @AfricaCDC.

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911565288165388?s=20

"Unroll"

Ctd7) This brings me to the old question repeatedly ( ctd), months ago I was asked this questions . #VaccineEquity ,poverty , malnutrition go hand in hand . Answer same.@AfricaCDC,@UNAIDS_ESA , @UNAIDS_ESA,@UNICEF_AUOffice ,@UNICEF_AUOffice ,@unicefchief

https://twitter.com/Rpshahmemorial1/status/1463858214412320776?s=20

Ctd 8) Those questions and their answers haven't changed ctd)

https://twitter.com/Rpshahmemorial1/status/1463851118107115520?s=20

Ctd 9) @MoHFW_INDIA,@narendramodi ,@PMOIndia , @PrinSciAdvGoI , @mansukhmandviya @HardeepSPuri ,@JM_Scindia we must act immediately not only against Africa but also hubs like UK and Dubai , the faster we do the better , time is of essence.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1463885589405646852?s=20

Unroll

It is spreading faster than the Delta in fact it is now the fastest spreading variant that we know .

Fastest spreading variant till date , 500 % faster apparently

The EU starts to close down on Africa . @narendramodi , @PMOIndia , @MoHFW_INDIA , @MoCA_GoI, @mansukhmandviya ,@shekhar_mande , @PrinSciAdvGoI

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1464132568333398018?s=20

Ctd 13) Now this means that countries need to focus on both Public Health measures like masking with good masks and good quality air monitoring to make control possible, vaccines alone will be ineffective to control spread.

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20

Ctd 14) while many of us think that the SA have done a great job there is now emerging information that we many have been already late because the SA consortium had a sampling bias. Now that 1 month hiatus maybe enough to seed the strain across the globe

https://twitter.com/NeilTStacey/status/1464192596935417856?s=20

Ctd 15) Seems that the number of Israelis who have been documented positive has increased to 4 . One of them triple vaxxed . That is dangerous stuff .

https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1464190991204859919?s=20

Ctd16) Seems others are soon finding the mutant .

https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1464197872887513094?s=20

Ctd 16) This not closing down fast is a doomsday situation, we are compounding the problem

https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1464150235714932742?s=20

Ctd 18) Seems that Egypt already has this variant because the one that came into Belgium came from Egypt or caught at airport/ in flight .

https://twitter.com/MaesPiet/status/1464217125682388992?s=20

Ctd19) Seems also that this mutant was able to do what the Delta was able to do in weeks .However there is a caveat statement that I wish to make , seemingly SA has very high incidence of HIV and that may have helped the mutant gain ground faster

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1464069652158590992?s=20

Ctd20) If the South Africans have 20% incidence of HIV then we are looking at a global hotbed to ferment new variants
avert.org/professionals/….

Ctd21) And Just heard that the US is awaiting for more information on the variant before deciding BUT the virus is not. It will enter the US if it hasn't already .Speed trump's over efficacy in a pandemic , if you wish to be perfect you will surely lose .
arabianbusiness.com/videos/442939-…

Ctd22) So now there is a new tracker for this

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464042632120832001?s=20

Ctd23) while the UK thinks that they are smart to stop flights coming from SA and a couple of other countries, I think we may already be late .Sample this

https://twitter.com/Rpshahmemorial1/status/1464252350680297472?s=20

Update on Belgian case . God only knows how many in Belgium must have been infected in the last 11 days.

https://twitter.com/vanranstmarc/status/1464223622747283460?s=20

Ctd24) The Mrna vaccines will take around 2- 3 weeks to get additional data and additional time to tweak their vaccines, then comes the difficult part of getting them into arms , with a variant like this one ( we hope to be wrong ) it will be late

https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938?s=20

Ctd 25) And that brings me to another important aspect,the value of holding fort & taking preemptive action ,while some want data to be sure they forget that it is the job of Public health officials to take decisions based on emerging data ,prevent a crisis before it happens

Ctd 26) Now we have some more concerning information , the patient from Belgium who came through Egypt was young and did not develop much symptoms till day 11, that means she should be in Cytokine storm BUT WÀIT at day 11 she still is throwing live virus like crazy ,concerning

Ctd27) Amidst all the gloom in the tweets above there was a great question by @hjelle_brian about is the virus changing too much and my answer is below. Agree we dont have a multi valent vax currently, but speed at which the virus has changed makes it possible in next 6 months

Ctd 28) There is an update " Omicron " it is who.int/news/item/26-1…

Also finally the World body is taking action as it should

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1464302291318501379?s=20

Seems that the US will do something about the situation. The United States will restrict travel for non-U.S. citizens from South Africa and seven other countries starting on Monday as a new Covid variant emerges.

President Joe Biden was briefed on Friday by White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci.In addition to South Africa, the affected countries are Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi.