To anyone repeating the "B.1.1.529 is due to a lack of vaccine sharing" line: South Africa is not vaccine limited, and hasn't been for months. They've been vaccinating children 12+ for a month. Anyone there can get vaccinated just by showing up. The problem is hesitancy.
A friend of mine from SA messaged me the other night as I was going to sleep, to complain about the mess over there. He has multiple comorbidities, but almost nobody around him is vaccinated. Lots of cases of companies even banning vaccinated people because of "spike shedding".
His company is making everyone (incl. software developers) work at the office. Not for work-related reasons - so they can do extracurricular "bonding activities". A coworker has an adopted child with HIV (immunocompromised & vulnerable) who sought an exemption. Exemption denied.
My friend, feeling sorry for the scared father, decided to overrule HR and gave him permission to work from home, rather than to just come in so coworkers can drink together or whatnot. HR complained to upper management. He now faces a disciplinary hearing.
Across most of Africa, vaccination is highly limited by supply, not demand. But in South Africa, the struggle now is against vaccine hesitancy. And surveys suggest that this story will eventually be repeated in many other countries across Sub-Saharan Africa.
News from yesterday:

reuters.com/world/africa/e…

Again: vaccine supply remains a huge problem in much of the world. But not in South Africa. That problem falls on vaccine hesitancy.

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

28 Nov
Since comments were shut down on this thread... a reply thread.

1) The existence of a finite number of things that professionals have been wrong about in their field does not in any way imply the likelihood that a random person is likely to be more correct than professionals.
E.g., if climatologists get some specific detail of climatology wrong in regards to *rapidly evolving news*, that doesn't mean that one should listen to John Doe over the IPCC.

2) When one posits "theoretical harms" of COVID restrictions up against the actual measured harms... Image
.... the real, demonstrable harms win. I used excess death figures to avoid the "died with COVID vs. died of COVID" red herring. And to be clear: yes, these excess deaths are mainly due to respiratory disease, & to a lesser extent cardiac - the way COVID kills people. Image
Read 18 tweets
14 Nov
I was today years old when I learned that all six of the programmers behind ENIAC, the first digital computer, were women (whose work went almost entirely unrecognized until the 1980s).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC

Their first program was nuclear simulations for a hydrogen bomb.
The six - Jean Jennings, Marlyn Wescoff, Ruth Lichterman, Betty Snyder, Frances Bilas, and Kay McNulty - were "human computers" who got their positions due to wartime labour shortages. They kept their jobs after the war because their experience was too difficult to replace.
As generative programming languages did not yet exist, "programming" ENIAC meant switches and rewiring cables, which required a full understanding of its blueprints. Photos of them next to ENIAC referred to them as "refrigerator ladies" & they had to serve as hostesses for guests
Read 14 tweets
1 Nov
@elonmusk @MartinKulldorff @joerogan @DrJBhattacharya Sorry, Elon, but this article is fringe.

1 . "Mounting evidence indicates that natural immunity is stronger and longer lasting than vaccine-induced immunity." - Here's a meta-review of the entire corpus. No, it is not.

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
@elonmusk @MartinKulldorff @joerogan @DrJBhattacharya 2. "In a study from Israel..."

Hmm, what does the text say at the top of that "Study from Israel", I wonder?
@elonmusk @MartinKulldorff @joerogan @DrJBhattacharya The "study from Israel" is a non-peer-reviewed preprint that not only contradicts the rest of the corpus, but does so by *over an order of magnitude*. Giant flashing red lights with loud sirens should be going off in your head by now.
Read 29 tweets
31 Oct
Good review from the CDC published yesterday of protection levels from past infection vs. vaccination - worth a bookmark.

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

Of particular note, the section "Immune Response Kinetics and Duration of Protection" is worth a read.
One criticism about the CDC's stance that jumps immediately to mind is: they show that in most contexts, protection from infection vs. 2-shot vaccination is roughly similar. They then go on to show that it's well evidenced that vaccination following infection significantly...
... further increases protection - justifying their policy they've held since the beginning of offering full course of vaccination for previously infected individuals.

Well, then why did you wait so long to offer the same benefit to people who got their roughly similar level...
Read 8 tweets
5 Sep
@GidMK I've been ranting against cryptocurrency for quite a while, and I fully agree with every word he says.
@GidMK TL/DR: blockchain is a database that can store any data. Nothing more. But it's distributed between many parties, who you can't trust. So unlike a normal database, you have to go to extreme lengths to try to prove that they're not lying to / cheating on you.
@GidMK With cryptocurrencies, they're using it like a database of VISA transactions of digital coins, and also generating a small number with each transaction processed. You could of course do this with any database, but distributed you must assume everyone might be lying.
Read 16 tweets
5 Sep
A slight Sunday decline in UK cases to 37011 corresponds to a slight drop in the doubling time to 37,8d.

In the UK, the decision to suspend all COVID controls in the House of Parliament has been met with a chorus of condemnation from doctors and medical experts, including...
parental consent will be normally required for children to get vaccinated if the government goes through with their plan to overrule the JCVI recommendations, objecting teens deemed "competent" to make choices will be able to overrule their parents.

Read 11 tweets

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