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5 Sep, 11 tweets, 6 min read
A slight Sunday decline in UK cases to 37011 corresponds to a slight drop in the doubling time to 37,8d.

In the UK, the decision to suspend all COVID controls in the House of Parliament has been met with a chorus of condemnation from doctors and medical experts, including...
members of SAGE:







On the other side of the spectrum, outrage has been thrown at comments by vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi that while...
parental consent will be normally required for children to get vaccinated if the government goes through with their plan to overrule the JCVI recommendations, objecting teens deemed "competent" to make choices will be able to overrule their parents.

Zahawi also expressed a desire to do "everything in his power" to prevent a winter lockdown, and this includes making sure that the government delivers on a booster programme.

He's also backing compulsory vaccination for NHS workers and vaccine passports for large venues.

Meanwhile, MP aides are being swamped by an "absolute crisis in mental health issues", overwhelmed by a twelvefold increase in case work from desperate constituents:

theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
In "careful with anecdotes" news, Rolling Stone and others have retracted the story from yesterday (which I mentioned):



... after NHS Sequoyah stated that they have not had to turn away emergency room patients:

facebook.com/NHSSequoyah/po…
Regardless, the UK continues to close in on a grim milestone with ~666k COVID deaths, rapidly approaching the 675k of the 1918 flu pandemic. I never thought we'd see it get this far...

cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…

Yes, populations have grown since then, but still...
Globally, numbers are more challenging due to poor recordkeeping and testing. The Economist puts the best estimate at 15,2m deaths [95%CI=9,4m-18,2m], vs. the nominal total of 4,6m:

economist.com/graphic-detail…

Most common estimates for the 1918 pandemic are around 25-50m.
Back in the US, keen to avert further growth in the case and death rates, health officials continue to express confidence in a booster rollout starting on 20 September - and if there is a delay it'll be "at most a few weeks":

theguardian.com/us-news/2021/s…
Lastly, Italy has expressed hope that the G20 will be arriving at an agreement to develop a way to rapidly supply vaccines to developing countries, “so that the vaccine is the right of everybody and not just a privilege for few.”

usnews.com/news/business/…

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

Nafnlaus Profile picture
5 Sep
@GidMK I've been ranting against cryptocurrency for quite a while, and I fully agree with every word he says.
@GidMK TL/DR: blockchain is a database that can store any data. Nothing more. But it's distributed between many parties, who you can't trust. So unlike a normal database, you have to go to extreme lengths to try to prove that they're not lying to / cheating on you.
@GidMK With cryptocurrencies, they're using it like a database of VISA transactions of digital coins, and also generating a small number with each transaction processed. You could of course do this with any database, but distributed you must assume everyone might be lying.
Read 16 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
4 Sep
With a mild Saturday decline to 37578, UK doubling times drop down to 39,5d, just over a month. Hospitalization and mortality trends continue their unending upslope.

In self-inflicted chaos news, the JCVI's recommendation against vaccinating 12-15 year olds - a decision that...
sets them apart from expert groups around the world - has now gotten a rebuke from a member of SAGE, the government's *other* pandemic advisory group. While JCVI portrayed *vaccination* as disrupting schools, Sage's Prof. Edmunds warns COVID will do that:

standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-…
Johnson looks to plan to push ahead on vaccinations for 12-15yos regardless of the JCVI's statement, but will now face more parliamentary opposition. In a twist, JCVI's Prof. Harden is publicly saying that parents should be given an option to vaccinate:

theguardian.com/world/2021/sep…
Read 17 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
3 Sep
With 42076 cases reported today, the UK doubling time drops to 97d, while mortality and hospitalization rates continue upwards.

The big news today is that the JCVI has made the UK the only major country to reject the vaccination of children (in this cases, ages 12-15): ImageImage
gov.uk/government/pub…

Their opinion, which references only three non-peer-reviewed preprints, is full of misleading and outright wrong statements - for example: Image
Anyone should immediately see the problem of using the *whole population* as the denominator rather than the rate per infection (when talking about allowing all children to get infected), but the numbers don't even match their preprints, and are more to the point, impossible. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
10 Jul
32367 cases on a Saturday brings the centre-averaged doubling time down to slightly to 18 days. UK hospitalizations continue the expected exponential trend.

It's been previously discussed that Delta's effectiveness is by and large not through any clever immune-evasion tricks,...
... but rather largely through simply being a more "fit" virus due a higher binding affinity for ACE2. New research continues to show how fit it is:

virological.org/t/viral-infect…

Over the course of the pandemic, the mean time between exposure and PCR-detectable levels of ...
... virus has fallen from 6 to 4 days. More concerningly however, the detectable levels of the virus were 1260 times (not percent... times) higher at the first detection than early in the pandemic. Delta, quite simply, surges to high viral loads extremely quickly.

Even in our...
Read 10 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
9 Jul
35707 UK cases today drops the doubling time down a notch to 22,7 days. Despite 4 of 10 of England's ambulances already being overloaded and on "Black Alert" (something we only know thanks to leaks):



... it does make you wonder whether - had the...
... government not insisted on lifting the brakes on 19 July, whether the continued progress of vaccination would be able to dull this wave before it gets too bad. A 3-week doubling time is a significant improvement, after all.

But I guess we'll never know.
With all but a handful of European countries back into case growth, Germany - one of the more slow-growing European countries - has declared all of Spain a COVID risk area and requires that travelers provide a negative test result to avoid quarantine.

reuters.com/world/europe/g…
Read 15 tweets
Nafnlaus Profile picture
8 Jul
Lots going on in the charts today, in this period of calm before the brakes get lifted on the 19th.

The good news first: meagre growth to 32551 cases on a Thurday boosts the doubling time to 26,1 days.

The bad news: the death trend continues to rise further above the... ImageImage
... hospitalization trend, nearly keeping track with the case trend.

We finally got age breakdown data for June, and there is some good news: the growing incidence rate of childhood hospitalizations relative to cases has reversed and is back to winter levels. While it's not...
... clear why this has happened, it's certainly welcome.

Vaccination in June switched to primarily focusing on the 18-54yo cohort, and this can be clearly seen in their declining share of cases in graph 2. The 55+ cohort continued to decline as immunity built, but appears to...
Read 13 tweets

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