The COVID variant getting the blame for the sell-off in risk assets.

Pundits seem to be forgetting that risk assets peaked in early November (after strong CPI print) and the selling has intensified since Fed's taper announcement.

Market has been deteriorating for weeks.
Thanks to unprecedented QE, ecommerce + payments + software + video games and streaming stocks benefited tremendously during the pandemic (their valuations were a lot lower then).

Conditions are very different now - Fed is tightening and valuations are also a lot higher.
Important to ignore the hype + think critically.

Over past year, we learnt about a few COVID-variants but the financial markets largely ignored them because of the Fed's QE program ($120b/month).

Now, a new COVID-variant is rocking risk assets. Why? The Fed is now tapering.
Myth -

Fed's QE suppresses UST yields and its end causes them to surge

Reality -

Fed's QE has always caused UST yields to rise (animal spirits/bullish outlook on the economy) and its end has caused them to decline (return of deflationary fears)

Pays to check popular BS

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More from @saxena_puru

22 Nov
The major indices are still near their ATHs and many large caps + mega caps haven't cracked yet.

This suggests that the liquidation isn't over.

Bear-market rallies might take place in the high growth names but for most names, the primary trend is currently down.
Over the following weeks, the contraction is likely to get worse and the stronger US Dollar should cause commodities/inflation to roll over.

Global PMIs also likely to roll over and this will cause an economic slowdown.

Sell-off only likely to end when the Fed becomes dovish.
This sell off is not unexpected, neither is it a 'black swan' event.

The ongoing selling is a rational response to tightening monetary conditions.

The Fed's QE unleashed animal spirits and pushed prices/valuations to an extreme and the market is now discounting its end.
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov
Message to socialists -

"Fair share" of tax means a flat tax (same %) for all taxpayers who pay tax. It does NOT mean fleecing the super wealthy by confiscating their wealth.

After income tax/capital gains tax/wealth tax and inheritance tax, some nations take 65-70% of wealth.
Basic maths - (20% flat tax)

A person who makes $100K pays $20K in tax
A person who makes $1m pays $200K in tax
A person who makes $10m pays $2m in tax
A person who makes $100m pays $20m in tax

Wealthy do pay more tax, even with a flat tax regime.
Penalising the wealthy because they have more money is immoral and wrong.

Inheritance tax is the biggest form of legal theft that exists ---> that capital has already been taxed once or even more than once.

Being ambitious, working hard, saving and investing isn't a crime.
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
1)Portfolio Oct-end -

$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RTY_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +779.77% (52.29%pa)
$ACWI +79.25% (11.95%pa)
$SPX +112.10% (15.65%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +39.18%
$ACWI +16.10%
$SPX +22.61%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $MQ 3) $AFRM 3) $MELI 4) $MTTR

Contd....
3) Commentary -

October was a decent month as my portfolio rebounded with the broad market.

During the month, I grabbed shares of $AFRM $MQ $QS and $TOST and in order to raise cash for these, sold out of a few lower conviction or more mature companies in my portfolio....
Read 12 tweets
28 Oct
The eVTOL industry will grow rapidly over next decade.

Still early days but with its strong management team + Board and incredible partners, Lilium likely to be a big winner.

Current market cap is $2.5b, offers asymmetric r/r.

Do your own DD.

Disclosure - I'm long $LILM
Lilium - Stuttgart to become regional hub for network

I'm long $LILM
Lilium - Management team
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
1)Portfolio Sep-end -

$ABNB $ADYEY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RT_F

Short $ARKK #ZB_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +741.57% (51.97%pa)
$ACWI +70.0% (10.99%pa)
$SPX +98.43% (14.41%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +32.66%
$ACWI +9.79%
$SPX +14.68%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $UBER 3) $MELI 4) $GLBE 5) $DLO

Contd....
3)Commentary -

September was a tough month and the ongoing super volatile downtrend in stocks took its toll on my portfolio.

During the month, I invested in two companies -

(i) Airbnb
(ii) Uber

and seeing the reversal in UST yields, also trimmed some of my richly valued..
Read 11 tweets
1 Sep
1) Portfolio update Aug-end -

$ADYEY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QELL $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +830.25% (56.21%pa)
$ACWI +77.51% (12.16%pa)
$SPX +108.30% (15.81%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +46.92%
$ACWI +14.97%
$SPX +20.41%

Biggest positions -

1) $DLO 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $GLBE 5) $PLTR

Contd....
Commentary -

August was a decent month and today marks the 5th anniversary of my post-retirement high-growth portfolio.

My portfolio's YTD return is +46.92% and over the past 5 years, the return is +830.25% (nine-bagger on the entire portfolio) representing a CAGR of 56.21%...
Read 13 tweets

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