Thread by @saxena_puru

1)Portfolio Sep-end -

$ABNB $ADYEY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RT_F

Short $ARKK #ZB_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +741.57% (51.97%pa)
$ACWI +70.0% (10.99%pa)
$SPX +98.43% (14.41%pa)

2) YTD return -

Portfolio +32.66%
$ACWI +9.79%
$SPX +14.68%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $UBER 3) $MELI 4) $GLBE 5) $DLO

Contd....

3)Commentary -

September was a tough month and the ongoing super volatile downtrend in stocks took its toll on my portfolio.

During the month, I invested in two companies -

(i) Airbnb
(ii) Uber

and seeing the reversal in UST yields, also trimmed some of my richly valued..

4)...software companies. After this trimming, my enterprise software exposure has now declined to approximately 40% of my overall portfolio.

The world economy appears to be opening (in fits and starts) and in order to capitalise on the resumption of mobility and travel...

5)...I invested in Airbnb and Uber.

Both businesses are super dominant in their respective industries and if my assessment is correct, they should grow at a brisk pace over the next 3-4 years.

Airbnb's valuation reflects this optimism but Uber appears to be very cheap...

6)...and it is likely to hand out decent returns over the following 9-12 months.

Elsewhere, in the middle of September, I went long Russell 2000 futures (#RT_Y) and with the benefit of hindsight, this was obviously not a very good idea. This is a leveraged position and it...

7)...isn't hedged by my $ARKK short (more on that later), so it added to my portfolio drawdown in September.

About a week ago, I also went short 30-Year US Treasury Bond Futures (#ZB_Y) and if long-term rates head higher, this should hand out decent gains.

Finally, last....

8)...month, I also put on two hedges - first one resulted in a whipsaw and was closed with a small loss and the current one is showing a profit and has protected my portfolio over the past few days from heavy selling in growth stocks.

My trend following indicators are...

9)...currently flashing downtrend and as long as this is the case, my growth stock exposure will remain hedged.

At this stage, it is tough to know when the ongoing correction will end but rising long-term rates are a headwind for growth stocks so IMHO, this is not the time to..

10)...catch falling knives.

Although anything can happen, I suspect growth stocks will underperform over the following weeks and capital will probably continue to rotate to short-duration assets.

Once the correction has run its course, the major indices are likely to rally...

11)...and we should see new ATHs next year.

All things considered, I can't say the same about the ARK ETFs which are caught in a downtrend and once the selling has exhausted itself, they will probably require a long period of time to build bases and consolidate.

- THE END-