August was a decent month and today marks the 5th anniversary of my post-retirement high-growth portfolio.
My portfolio's YTD return is +46.92% and over the past 5 years, the return is +830.25% (nine-bagger on the entire portfolio) representing a CAGR of 56.21%...
The returns have surpassed my expectations and I am quite pleased with the progress thus far. At the same time, am also aware that my future returns will probably be way lower.
Logic dictates that one simply can't keep compounding at this surreal rate for a long period of time.
During the past month, I made a few changes and got rid of lower conviction companies $FVRR $ROKU $SNAP and one of of businesses (Afterpay) was acquired by Square.
$FVRR and $ROKU Q2 operating results were disappointing IMHO and the changing competitive landscape prompted...
...me to close out my positions.
$FVRR will soon be competing with LinkedIn and $ROKU faces intense competition overseas (ex-US) and this is a fight I don't want to be involved in.
Turning to $SNAP, Pinterest's sudden decline in its user-base made me realise that social...
...media is a fickle business and not every company is the next Facebook, therefore I sold my shares and booked my gains.
In terms of new investments, I opened positions in $U and $UPST as these appear to be promising long-term compounders....
Going forward, I intend to run a 'tighter ship' and my stock selection process will be even more stringent.
This should translate into longer holding periods, (hopefully) fewer mistakes and pretty low portfolio turnover.
After all, world-class compounders are a rare breed..
...and in this business one doesn't have to own all the big winners. What matters is what is included in the portfolio and in this regard, its best to own the best 15-20 disruptive businesses and sit tight (until the story deteriorates).
This method has worked for decades...
...and in investing, its pretty difficult to re-invent the wheel. Over the long run, a shareholder's returns will pretty much mirror the performance of the underlying business (subject to valuation changes - lower the price of admission, the better). So, there isn't much...
...point in jumping from A to B to C...even more so when one's portfolio companies are firing on all cylinders.
Turning to the market environment, the Fed is dovish right now and it hasn't set a firm date for reducing its asset purchases. If history is any guide...
...risk assets should remain buoyant until the end of QE but it is also conceivable that the market may discount this process and sell-off sooner.
In any event, IMHO a big pullback is likely over the following 12-15 months and next spring/summer could be pretty interesting!..
For my part, am just staying invested in these secular compounders and when the time comes to defend capital, will hedge my portfolio.
Thats about it, this covers my thoughts on this subject.
Hope this has been helpful.
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Two and a half years ago, when I first became active on FinTwit and started sharing my high growth portfolio, many called me 'an idiot' or 'a clown'. These critics were sure my 'overvalued' stocks would crash and burn!
Between April '20 and Jan '21, when I repeatedly posted...
...that I felt that we were witnessing a young bull-market, the same critics chastised me again and called me all sorts of names.
Well, my 'overvalued' stocks have done pretty well + the broad indices have been rallying hard for almost 18 months (with minimal pullbacks)...
...Despite this, these 'value oriented' critics and anonymous keyboard warriors still believe that I am the 'clown or the idiot' and they are in fact right.
My 'overvalued' bubble stocks are still strong and the 18 month old bull-market is still running! And I am the 'clown'!?
- Durable growth (not cyclical, prone to booms/busts)
- High gross margins (especially for software)
- Outstanding revenue growth (50-100%YOY!)
- Big TAMs/long runways/still early in S-curve adoption
So, here we have disruptive companies which are growing rapidly within enormous
This deceleration shaved off 24% of Fiverr's market cap!
Here is a company which despite very tough comps (after last year's COVID related boost to its business), announced that its revenue will grow ~50% this year and its stock got smoked!
Agreed; its valuation was elevated but this 83% gross margin business is now...
...valued at ~21 X year-end EV/S.
Yesterday, Fiverr announced its active buyers grew by 43%YOY in Q2 '21 to 4 million and spend per buyer increased 23%YOY.
So, apart from a mild slowdown in its business (expected after last year's bump), all other metrics didn't indicate...
Some FinTwit accounts keep claiming I'm a fraud and a con artist...
According to them, I didn't really own a stake in my first investment management firm (I was merely an employee) and that my trades/performance are all made up.
I run this account for free, don't charge...
....anybody a cent, don't do any paid marketing, don't even accept any offers to run funds, share my research for FREE and don't run any paid service....yet, I'm accused of being a fraud!
My $1m wager to get my portfolio CAGR verified by CPA is still available...no takers yet.
If anyone has any doubts whatsoever about my career history, you can look up my name on Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission website (public register). Here is the link -
In today's day and age, thanks to globalisation and progress in the developing world, creation of mandatory pensions + investment plans, the investor pool has grown tremendously and there is a constant inflow of investment dollars.
Add to this mix ZIRP + QE and one can see...
...why valuations have deviated from the historic norm.
Finally, never before in the history of capitalism have so many asset-light, high margin businesses (with recurring or sticky revenues) dominated globally and grown so rapidly for so long.
30-40 years ago, the best...
...businesses used to grow revenue by 20-25% pa their capex was usually high and most had to build factories and produce goods.
Today, dozens of globally dominant companies are growing by 50-100+% pa, they are asset light and their marginal cost is approaching zero....
Founder-led, capital light, non-cyclical high growth businesses with big TAMs, long runways, recurring revenues/sticky customers and high margins are almost always "overvalued".
Why should such companies be cheap?
Even during COVID-crash, the best names were richly valued.
Not investing because of "overvaluation" has been a big mistake for ~20 years! All the big winners looked overvalued + stayed rich for years.
Even during the GFC crash-low, the highest quality compounders were "overvalued".
In the long run, business quality > valuation.
Valuation matters obviously - the lower the valuation at the time of 'entry', the higher the subsequent return.
However, the most promising businesses are hardly ever 'undervalued' and the best time to buy into them is during stock market sell-offs, when they get marked down.