Encourage responsible behaviour, don't impose restrictions that are futile for 80% of the population!
Encourage the vulnerable and those around the vulnerable to take extra care.
Think of the longterm wellbeing of children.
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Allow the vulnerable easy access to boosters. Don’t waste effort on, or antagonise the healthy. For the vast majority of the unvaccinated vulnerable, the problem is logistical.
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If this variant is significantly more transmissible, it will eventually get everywhere. Travel bans will be futile as this virus is already in other continents.
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There is no signal of increased virulence at this stage. Hospital admissions are running lower compared to the third wave for equivalent case numbers. ICU beds have not shown any increase yet.
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Even if there is significant evasion of immunity against infection, there is nothing pointing to evasion of immunity against severe disease at this stage.
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Acknowledge the role our immune systems will play in ending the pandemic, whether helped by the vaccine or by recovery from the disease. Give people hope of an end by pointing to examples of areas that already saw a minor third wave.
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Risk of reinfection to date has been very low, and risk of severe disease amongst those reinfected is also extremely low. Don’t hide this fact. Faith in natural immunity does NOT undermine vaccine confidence, in fact, vaccine confidence requires faith in immunity.
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This wave will end as all previous waves, through saturation. A certain level of infections is inevitable. The peak level can be reduced somewhat by responsible behaviour. The goal should rather be to maximise the vulnerable never infected.
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Humans are not computers. We act on faith and reason, not on instructions. There is a difference. If an instruction is not reasonable or the instructor not trusted, humans resist.
Moral reasoning involves being able to give reasons for our actions.
While Thomas Kuhn suggested that we "follow the scientific community", Paul Feyerabend suggested we "follow scientific geniuses".
Galileo, Newton and Einstein embodied a rebel spirit that drove scientific innovation.
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Feyerabend saw science as a creative and artistic endeavour and believed that it should not limit itself to one method or constrain itself with dogmatic rules.
It is the people that put their careers and reputations on the line that transforms the history of science.
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If scientists act as self-righteous bullies, treating laymen as idiots, even if they are right, they should expect kick back from the community.
Instead, scientists should aim to broaden the understanding of their work and listen to the concerns of ordinary citizens.
During this pandemic with multiple variants and multiple waves, 10-20% of the population might never be infected. Vaccines are not expected to increase this number by much.
Who ends up in this 10-20% matters.
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The mortality risk to the healthy young is 100,000x lower compared to the healthy old, and 500,000x lower compared to the old and sick.
By closing schools and hiding the young, are we not making it increasingly difficult for the old to remain in the 20% never infected?