Thread by @surajbrf

Starting a new thread for the week ended Nov 27th.

This week was a sleeper hit, coming from nowhere to be the all time 2nd best ever week, with nearly 55 million doses.

It continues the trend of strong vaccination ramp-up since Diwali ended:

1/

https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1462105038411599875

With the strong week behind us, full month vaccination has also risen to almost 156 million doses, a great number given that vaccinations were slow for the first 1.5 weeks.

2/

The bucket view is misleading because the last three days were all a few thousand short of the next million bucket. Literally a few more minutes of data would have pushed them over.

With almost 8m/day, the daily average was the same as September’s scorching rate.

3/

As projected last week, cumulative vaccinations blew past 1.2 billion, with fully vaxed population touching growing well past 400m

Cumulative: 1,218 million
Fully vaccinated: 437 million

4/

In the process, we overtook Europe in number of fully vaccinated people on Saturday, given gap between them in the day old ourworldindata figures on Friday:

5/

While daily vaccinations have increased to September rate, the percentage of 2nd doses has dropped slightly, stabilizing around 68% through the week.

That 68% is still over 5m doses every day. 2 days saw >6m doses with one day at 5.97m. A week of almost-next-buckets…

6/

The previous days shows:
* Second dose numbers have risen strongly as hoped.
* Govt has unlocked more first dose recipients through more aggressive and targeted efforts.

Both these are critical; at 84% 1st dose coverage it is hard to find 2.5-3m new people daily.

7/

Credit is due to @PMOIndia and @MoHFW_INDIA - law of diminishing returns makes it harder & yet our performance can be quantified by comparison -

* We’re still doing more 1st doses than entire continents are doing total doses
* Our total dose rate is wildly ahead of them.

8/

Dose availability with states has finally stabilized this week, indicating that ongoing vaccination rate has finally caught up with production rate.

In other words domestic production rate is ~8m/day; @SerumInstIndia has resumed COVAX exports from their excess production.

9/

As a share of global vaccinations in November, Indian share rose to 20% this week from 17% the week prior.

While China continues to lead, India did incrementally more doses than them this week.

10/

The threat of the Xi variant (called Omicron variant in some places) makes it critical to accelerate plans to vaccinate children, and to deploy excess Covishield supply as booster doses to the earliest second dose recipients.

11/

India has not one but three local pediatric vaccine options all the way down to 2yr olds:
ZyCov-D
Covaxin
Corbevax

No other country in the world has such a luxury.

It is critical that no time be wasted to push boosters and pediatric vaccinations @PMOIndia @MoHFW_INDIA

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