So a couple of very early thoughts on #OmicronVariant. All of this is very preliminary so take it with a grain of salt. I realize that this is going to make people very jumpy. I will not tell you to relax. That just makes things worse.
🔹Where it came from isn’t as important as why. It likely has been living in an immunocompromized host for a while. That time in the host was well spent, refining its molecular machinery over months under just enough immunological pressure to not get taken out but to improve.
It contains a lot of mutations that have been seen in other variants. These mutations are beneficial or harmless. They occur naturally because the virus is pretty sloppy at replicating. Bad mutations aren’t passed along efficiently because they hamper viral replication.
🔹Take home message. Until we have global vaccination we will see ongoing variant evolution. Social disparities in healthcare are major drivers on this. This also applies locally. Our children, until recently were a major host of infection. They need to be vaccinated.
🔹Travel bans won’t control this. This sucker is fast. It’s already here.
This variant got noticed because of spikes in local infection rates. This may be more infectious than delta, but the data is too preliminary. It was first characterized in South Africa which has less than 25% of its population fully vaccinated.
How it will preform in a well vaccinated population remains to be seen. Yes it carries mutations to the spike protein and these can confer antibody resistance but there are caveats. To many mutations and the key no longer fits the lock. The locations matter.
To your eyes these are different keys, as the bows are distinct, even if the biting is the same and they open the lock intended. This would be omicron’s goal to escape detection, but fortunately the vaccine and resulting antibodies are all about the bite. 
Yes there are tricks and caveats but for the most part, because the vaccines are directed at the virus’s virulence factor they work on all comers. If the virus doesn’t have a functional spike protein it’s just the common cold. We’re good with that.
Preliminary risk assessment is usually based on antibody studies. Abs are only part of our immune system. It is far more difficult to measure cellular responses, which are a major factor in long term protection. That information mostly comes from epidemiological studies.
🔹TH: it truly is too early to make a call on vaccine escape, but I’m betting that we are covered. This will make boosters even more important though, given this viruses speed of replication you’ll need very well defended borders.
Also, until we have global suppression of this virus, we will have to maintain infection control measures. Masking and ventilation remain crucial adjuncts as do vaccine passports.
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