I'm still quite surprised at the complete and utter lack of basic integrity that has some ivermectin proponents arguing that the literature is fine because there is an "expected" rate of fraud and misconduct which has not been exceeded
This bizarre narrative states that the fraud in the ivermectin space isn't an issue because every scientific area has fraud and therefore we're just seeing exactly what we'd anticipate for any treatment
This is just genuinely nonsensical. Most of the fraudulent studies have been the most hugely positive, and there are serious concerns with many of the other papers
If all you care about is some vague concept of academic honesty, sure ivermectin might not be drastically worse than some other areas of the literature. But if you care about WHETHER IVERMECTIN WORKS FOR COVID-19...well. The fraud is a problem
Anyway, as I've said before the fraud in the literature is a significant concern that has made the outcome very hard to assess. We don't know if ivermectin works, largely because many of the studies are terribly low-quality or fake 🤷♂️
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One of the more depressing things about all these god-awful ivermectin "analyses" is how much they muddy the water if the drug DOES prove effective to some degree
I mean, it's entirely possible (some would reasonably argue likely) that ivermectin has a benefit for COVID-19! It's extremely unlikely that the benefit is large, but a small benefit is still very much on the cards
We may end up being quite certain that ivermectin reduces the death rate from COVID-19 by, say, 10%. That would be important, and the medication would be a useful part of the toolkit for treatment of the disease
In the video, Dr. John Campbell repeats the claim that, since Covid-19 claims dropped after the 13th of August, and as this was the point that ivermectin was "allowed as a treatment", this means that ivermectin had some massive implied benefit
But, as Dr. Campbell notes, there was no policy change in Japan on the 13th of August. There was absolutely no difference in terms of patient care before or after this "intervention"
The anonymous people behind ivm meta dot com have put together a response to this excellent piece. Their main argument is that it doesn't look at all the evidence
So, following Scott Alexander's fine example, let's briefly review the prophylaxis literature 1/n
2/n Here are all 15 prophylaxis studies, in their wonderful glory
I'm going to try and be brief, but we'll see how that goes
3/n First up, Shouman. In this 'randomized' study, the authors ceased allocating people into the control group at some point, no allocation concealment, and massive differences between groups at baseline
The thing about reporting systems such as this is that they rely entirely on self-reports, which are themselves influenced by media attention. This makes comparisons problematic
The HPV vaccine is probably the most talked about product of all time, and even then we were lucky to get a single news story in a global publication once every few months since it was rolled out
It's always fun being a debunker of sorts because whether people love it hate me depends on the popular myth du jour
I've had right-wing people super happy with me when I pointed out that fearmongering about glyphosate didn't really make sense, and very upset when I pointed out that fearmongering about lockdowns was also overblown
The low-carb people got really angry when I pointed out that the evidence isn't strong for any particular diet for long-term weightloss, but love me every time I note that meat is not as bad as headlines often paint it
One interesting thing that I think this underscores is how terrible people are at judging the benefits of treatments based on their own experience. The true figures show that people who had MATH+ may have been *more* likely to die
Now, I don't think that's likely to be causal - the treating clinicians were probably just giving the treatment to the sickest people - but the basic narrative supporting the FLCCC protocol has been clinical expertise
The central idea driving FLCCC is that these experts in clinical care - which make no mistake, they are - could tell based on their own recollections which treatments worked best