What have you changed in your trading since Mar'20? We saw majority of vol sellers setting a higher bar to enter a trade. But during this period we also found some edge: Despite equity vol finding equilibrium at elevated levels, $SPX autocorrelation averaged < 0. $VIX #ES_F
This means that the gamma portion of index options took out the trend. So you had dealers' hedging requirements selling the upticks and buying the dips.
Never in the past had we shorted 1week $SPX variance with such regularity.
What can end this melt-up in stocks? Mkt ecosystem depends on a Fed put + liquidity. Fed has solved the liquidity issue but not solvency issues. Credit may prove cause of future shocks. And $VIX might follow the credit cycle. We gauge mkt fragility via VIX futures over $SPX IV.
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There can be no single indicator to time a $VIX or $SPX trade. Even if it were, some machine would have by now already learned how to front-run it. So I'm the last person to suggest there is a publicly available indicator that one may have identified
but everybody else hasn’t. The collective intelligence of the market is the aggregate, not the average. But to answer @vixologist's question, a favorite I always look out to is correlations and vol-of-vol. But that’s just us, and even more so, largely as a signal that triggers
1/n S&P500 1month ATM volatility at 22.3 implies ~1.4% daily move for the $SPX in the next month. That’s what statistics tells us for a sole time-series that is an index. But there’s more going on under the hood.
2/n ATM option vol mirrors investor expectations for volatility realized around the current level of the market. If you want a concrete estimate for future index volatility regardless of price levels, then it’s actually variance swaps you need. Enter, the $VIX index.
3/n Irrespective of its mainstream adopted alias as a volatility index, the $VIX is -for every practical purpose- the price of a 30day variance swap on the #S&P500. And it trades somewhat above the ATM volatility, to offset for skew and convexity.
1/ Got been asked if Korean Autocallables is in top-5 issues when discussing vol, what would the other four be.
First and foremost, I would say you have to have your investing environment right, so here goes, by no particular order:
2/ Correlations between index constituents. $ICJ $JCJ. To make the point: First day in history when something like all but two shares in $SPX closed down, was Feb 5, 2018. Another two such days followed in December of same year.
3/ Volatility remains depressed by central bank policies. This is the elephant in the room. Watch $Fed Total Assets like a hawk.