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🚨🚨 Today, the Supreme Court decided its Second Amendment case, striking down New York's strict concealed carry law & establishing the right of law-abiding Americans to carry a loaded gun in public w/out any showing of special need. 🚨🚨

Significantly, the Court discards what had been the unanimous two-part framework in the federal courts of appeals and instead adopts a historical test that I can only imagine will create more confusion and difficulty.
This is strange to me - lack of challenge indicates constitutionality. Just one of the many ways in which a test pegged to historical analogy is going to cause all sorts of trouble for lower courts.
Read 23 tweets
"The average impact of corporate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) training is zero and some evidence suggests that the impact can become negative if the training is mandated."

—Roland Fryer (Harvard, Econ) 🧵

"'Statistical Snapshots,' which describe how employee outcomes differ by demographic, are another popular tool. These #s cannot provide proof of bias. Simple averages often mislead; importantly, crafting strategies based on misleading data often does more harm than good."

"Our intuition for how to decrease race and gender disparities in the workplace has failed us for decades. It’s time to stop guessing and start using the scientific method. Here is a three-step approach that can turn earnest intentions into good science."
Read 19 tweets
Scanned quickly for leading COVID indicators in this time of low testing.
First question: what do we care most about? Everyone will be different, but I'd say hospitalisations (serious illness/knock-on effects).
Ignoring with/for because ratio about stable.
Looks like this.
Acting fairly brainlessly, have just taken a bunch of possible leading indicators and lagged them forward to maximise the correlation of standard OLS regression to the target of hospitalisations.
Looks like this:
Focuses on the Omicron period, but has some pre (want to make sure the indicator it is doesn't get totally clobbered by the rise of some new variant).
N.B., all indicators predicting a level (though not a slope) higher than current actuals. Which is mildly interesting.
Read 15 tweets
Do you have any data whatsoever to substantiate the level of risk a healthy child faces by being exposed to SARS-CoV-2, Surgeon General? Knowing damn well the vast majority of kids have already been exposed?

Because if you do, there's an entire world that would love to see it.
Because this data DOES exist, @Surgeon_General. In fact, here is some of it.👇 What's fascinating is this data was used to push Fear Porn that unvaxxed kids are at 2x risk

But like I asked you, what's the risk? Why do you leave #s out of your sales pitch?
Here's the problem I have, sir...

Most kids are now post-infection. We know they ARE NOT at serious direct risk. You're encouraging mass-vaccination for what? Prevent for corollary impacts? For a virus they already had?!? Knowing it brings this risk? 👇🚨
Read 5 tweets
This is truly a happy Fathers Day: The % of kids being born to MARRIED couples has gone up in the last 5 years for *every racial group,* new stats show. That reverses years of decline

This is the # that improves all other #s long-term--crime, income, etc…
“One of the best ways to attain racial equality is to have similar rates of married households,” an expert said. “There is a mountain of data that shows how important two-parent households are, particularly married households, to family and economic and social well-being"
Breaking down stats by married status instead of race is far more helpful than the constant racial stats that are pretty misleading. Minorities who are married are doing quite well. When you hear how "X% of a race is Y" it's pretty much a proxy for X% of race is unmarried.
Read 5 tweets
1/ 🧵Well, it took me awhile to organize all this research info. So many rabbit holes. I finally decided the best way forward was to divide into parts. So the following is Part 1 summary of BC's vast research funding sources/initiatives. Hold on to your hats, it's a ride! #bcpoli
2/ 1st up, @HlthResearchBC. Did you know that the MSHR launched a Covid-19 Research Response Fund at outset of pandemic w/call out to BC researchers to have results available in time to inform public health responses thru fall/winter 2021? #bcpoli…
3/ Also, did you know that there's a Covid-19 Strategic Research Advisory Committee (SRAC) that supports BC's coordinated research pandemic response? It's bridge btwn PHO, gov't & research community w/primary role to advise on priorities/funding/…
Read 31 tweets
The latest leftist lie is that oil production is higher under Biden than Trump.

Let me show you what they are doing so you can explain it.

Their chart on the left; the one from the US Energy Information Administration on the right…
Even if you aren’t great with charts, you can clearly see that the nearly 13 million barrels of oil per day we were producing in late 2019 and early 2020 is higher than the 11.655 million barrels at the "today" part of the chart (March 2022) and the numbers in their chart
What they are doing is averaging the moment Trump took office up through and including the covid global shutdown.

Anyone who does data analysis knows that you normalize for unusual scenarios; a global economic shutdown is beyond unusual. World use plummeted- we all know this.
Read 6 tweets
During an interview, the terrific @MarquardtA asked me why the US wasn't delivering the weapons "some" in UKR said they had requested (1000 artillery, 500 tanks, etc).

I cited @SecDef press conference from Madrid yesterday, where Austin rebuked the same question. 1/9
The @SecDef noted he was specifically coordinating equipment transfer and weapons priorities with Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov.

Reznikov's top priorities are:
-Long Range fires
-Armor vehicles
-Mid-range ADA systems

Then Austin provided some numbers...2/
-Reznikov asked for 10 battalions of artillery, the west has provided 12.
-R asked for 200 tanks, UKR has received 270
-Ukraine received 97,000 anti-tank missiles, more than they requested, which is also more than the number of tanks in the entire world. 3/
Read 11 tweets
I had the exact same thought yesterday, and in general this week as I had a couple of phone calls with pre-pub authors for various reasons. We truly horribly underprepare debut authors for so much.
And debut groups are great but they're also groups of people who all don't know the same things, all don't know what they don't know, and all panic over the same things because how can they not?
So, some stuff that may or may not come in your debut group, and debuts, please feel free to add your questions, and other published others, feel free to add your responses. (Since we're talking dealing w/publishers, this is specifically trad pub.)
Read 57 tweets
Getting ready for live reporting for the School Committee meeting at 7, Agenda doc - with remote connection info here… #schcom0614
Ben, the friendly Police dog, is here tonight. Should be a good evening #schcom0614
And yes, Ben is really here #schcom0614
Read 30 tweets
Hearing today's #January6thCommitteeHearings will focus on "the Big Lie"
2 witness panels
First: Stirewalt & Stepien
Dunno if Stepien will be a "friendly" witness
Second: Ginsburg, Schmidt & Pak
-the lawyers ..
Brief witness rundown follows
Trump fmr Campaign Mgr Bill Stepien is appearing under subpoena
He helped craft a strategy to legally challenge the results (even tho he knew they'd lost)
He resigned when Giuliani/Ellis et all started taking control of the effort
Stepien was the adult in the campaign
#s guy
Chris Stirewalt is a former Fox News political editor Stirewalt was part of the Fox News team that called Arizona on Election Night for Biden
Which infuriated Trump & his senior aides
So they got him fired
Read 7 tweets

Just came off @gnoble79's Twitter space & the interesting exchange he had with @agnostoxxx over whether they could come up with any scenarios where the equity market wouldn't get spanked.

Shrub facetiously mentioned options expiry ST, but neither of them could come up with a serious counter narrative to their bearish view. OK, despite viewing myself as King of the Bears (although those 2 run me pretty close), I'm going to come up with two.

This is a really, really important exercise; if you can't argue against your own high conviction trades then I don't think you will ever make it in the markets. So here goes:
Read 21 tweets
Ali Alexander appears to try to re-write history here to cover for Roger Stone. 1/
As I show in this thread, Roger Stone began messaging that the election would be stolen from Trump in July 2020, when he sought & received a commutation from Trump who was floundering in the polls. The Proud Boys celebrated the commutation w/ Stone. 2/…
Proud Boys Biggs, Nordean, & Tarrio also formed Warboys, LLC in July 2020. By this time, the PBs were already known (to those paying attention) as Stone’s personal army. In Aug 2020, Ali posted a photo of himself w/ Stone & said they’d had dinner. But he quickly deleted it. 3/
Read 15 tweets
1)Please wake up LGB people. GENDER CLINICIANS ARE NOT OUR FRIENDS. This video will cover behaviors ranging from negligence to manipulation GD clinicians engage in to market, as safe, protocols that sterilize, ruin genitals, & damage LGB/het youth. Image
2)Gender clinicians admit they have forever destroyed the sexual function of all XYs given puberty blockers in Tanner 2 (10-12). My vids tend to be dry/informational. This is an angry rant. This is unambiguous child abuse. The effect was known in 2008. Kids can't consent to this. ImageImageImageImage
3)Mature executive function isn't complete until age 25. Gender clinicians have sexually lobotomized scores of XY kids at ages where they had no sexual orientation & now never will. Est. are hard, but #s are hundreds for sure, could be thousands. & THEY AREN'T STOPPING THIS. ImageImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
Ukraine’s other enemy is 🇺🇸 complacency. A chain I wrote before @WarintheFuture’s fantastic thread on same subject. Mines a bit more 🇺🇸 politics focused and certainly not up to his standard. Worth a read maybe anyway? 🧵
Some famous comedian once said ‘with friends like these, who needs enemies’. Ukraine’s enemy 🇷🇺 is vicious, unscrupulous, cynical and relentless. They play by their own rules and change them without warning. They want to win. Or if not win, then burn the ground behind them. (2)
To defeat such a formidable & diabolical foe, Ukraine has summoned a degree of national courage, ingenuity, & sheer baddassery to match the revered underdogs of the modern age. Churchill’s RAF ‘few’, the Chosin Marines, the Viet Minh/Cong come to my mind. (3)
Read 23 tweets
Just straight-up taking this figure at face value, that means that 263 of them were violent riots.

All told, $2,000,000,000 in damage was done, and about 30 people were killed.
I really don't get why there's so much insistence, on the very mainstream left, on referring to the George Floyd riots as "peaceful protests."

There were PP as well, for sure - but any situation with "businesses burning" isn't one of 'em...
(3) Worth noting: I also condemn the Capitol riot, which I would not describe as - say- "a peaceful walk to acquire podiums."

I tend overall to oppose crime, and in particular take a #Nika attitude toward members of mobs, who should be promptly killed or jailed by the state.
Read 4 tweets
Happy Primary Night! I'll be up for a while on my flight so I'll do a bit of tweeting. Just don't expect me to still be up when CA starts reporting in 3 1/2 hours!

MS & NJ close their polls at 8pm ET. SD closes polls in the CTZ then, but a lot of the state closes at 9.

I'm looking at MS 4, where incumbent Steve Palazzo is facing 6 challenger, four of whom have the money to be serious. A bit under 1/2 the total vote will come from the Gulf Coast, and 3 of the 4 serious contenders to Palazzo come from there.

Watch Jackson and Hancock Counties - the challengers need to hold Palazzo well under 50% in their Home Counties to have a shot at forcing a runoff. Then watch Harrison, the county that will cast the most votes. If Palazzo is well under 50% here, watch the battle for 2d.

Read 43 tweets
"The group is also accused of plotting to foment a riot and storm Congress, action that eventually forced the evacuation of lawmakers meeting 2 confirm the 2020 election results."

Remember when Roger Stone fomented a riot 2 prevent a recount in 2000? 1/…
I wrote here about Roger Stone’s election riot in 2000. 2/…
7/1/20: Stone says he can help re-elect a flailing Trump if Trump commutes his sentence
7/8/20: Stone makes a baseless claim re: Ds planning to rig the election
7/9/20: Proud Boys form Warboys, LLC
7/10/20: Trump commutes Stone’s sentence; PBs celebrate w/ Stone. 3/ Image
Read 98 tweets
Revealing spotlight on #China's emerging #PLA #Naval facility in #Ream, #Cambodia!

Glad to support @nakashimae & @catecadell's exposé @WashPost.

This will be hot topic at #SLD22 where I'm honored to be a delegate. Let's see what officials say! @IISS_org…
Ships adding up—

"#China’s #navy is already the world’s largest by #s of vessels. The @USNavy has 297 battle-force ships..according to @CRS4Congress, while China has 355 & is projected to have 460 by 2030, according to last year’s @DeptofDefense report."…
But, said Andrew Erickson, research director of the @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute @NavalWarCollege, “as impressive as those numbers are, without a significant network of robust overseas facilities, their ability to use them falls off rapidly w distance from China.” #Ream #Base
Read 6 tweets
This simple habit helped me grow 3 businesses to $200M in revenue.

Here’s how it works:
Each week I send a team memo outlining exactly what we need to move the company forward, with or without me.

By reading this memo, my team knows:

• what to work on
• what's a priority and why
• how to make decisions without my input
So here's a secret... my team memos take me 15 min to write.

Instead of asking for updates or looking for data,

I use a Notion template that writes 75% of the memo for me.

It pulls in the important data automatically.

So I can focus on providing insights on the data.
Read 19 tweets
Holy propaganda, Batman! Still trying to irrationally scare parents to manufacture consent for millions of injections into kids that they dont need? You bet! 🤬 Bossman bought a dose for every 5-11 child in the US before it was even approved... BEFORE even EMERGENCY approval.🚨🧵
Scary headline, eh? Makes you want to run out and get kids injected. Supposed to! 💡 In fact, they want you to jab your kid, jab them again, let those settle, then pop them with boosters. But why would any sane parent ever do that? B/c theyve been deceived. Let's break it down...
First, check out where this sensational and fear-driven headline actually lands the reader. Yes, I'm aware the CDC underlies this, I'll get to that.

For now, read this piece, brain-cringes and all. What did Pfizer request last week? EUA for 5yrs - 6mos.💡…
Read 22 tweets
Real-time reporting on the Board of Health meeting underway, slight delay in starting. #boh0601
Meeting agenda can be found… #boh0601
Motion to approve minutes of the April meeting, second, passes 3-0 #boh0601 194 Wachusett St chicken coop encroaching upon neighboring property. 834 West Central secure for time being, still trying to decide to demo or sell. 71 A&B owners met and making progress
Read 10 tweets
@orwell2022 @Immetjes @MinVWS @connolly_s I thought i saw this study before, took me forever, but of course was just same authors! I hate these unnecessarily complicated papers that play around with putting people into diff categories instead of following stable groups of people over time.
@orwell2022 @Immetjes @MinVWS @connolly_s israel data seems to love that crap since they did that for their myocarditis from vax is less bad than from infection overhyped paper: where in reality they did NOT properly distinguish between myo due to V, myo due to CV, & myo due to just C (no vax)
@orwell2022 @Immetjes @MinVWS @connolly_s Read those convoluted ways of messing with the data (screenshits above)! Check those exclusions! Sometimes simple is best, but not when your data is so bad you need to do everything u can to make sure it fits with pre-conceived hypothesis & even then they struggle!
Read 11 tweets
1/5. A Bloomberg article this morning discussing the Fed minutes put me onto a resource I was not aware of before: the Cleveland Fed's 'Inflation Now Cast'.…
2/5. Does not bode well for official Private Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index (Fed's favourite) release out tomorrow. Both 5.00% y/y & 0.45% m/m core PCE figures for April are slightly ahead of consensus. Trading Economics has core PCE y/y at 4.90% & m/m at 0.30%.
3/5. Note also that in the Working Paper backing this Now Cast Inflation model, the Cleveland Fed claims that its #s are superior to a the most popular consensus forecasts.
Read 5 tweets

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