Thread by @MMazarr

Very happy to (finally) highlight the release of this study. The idea, given intensifying US-RU/US-CH rivalry, was to ask what factors tend to stabilize such competitions and keep them from running out of control. A few major findings [THREAD]:
rand.org/pubs/research_…

2/ We reviewed literature on stability, escalation, and rivalry, and developed principles of stability in great power rivalries. We tested these in a number of historical cases + applied the resulting framework to current US-China and US-Russia contests

3/ Those current-day applications are a little dated--it took a while to get this report out. But we believe the basic conclusions remain valid, and that the trajectory we laid out has roughly continued (though has been mitigated in some cases, eg US Russia diplomacy)

4/ The study lists variables we found to be associated w/stability (personal relations, commo channels, managing allies + proxies etc) and two defining elements of stable rivalry: Acceptance of a shared status quo + tendency of relations to return to an equilibrium after shocks

5/ Even as of 2019-2020, we found that based on the vast majority of these variables, (no surprise) both US-Russia and US-China rivalries were headed toward unstable, volatile degrees of intensity. Both were kept from even worst instability by a handful of stabilizing variables

6/ One chief lesson was that "The US should take care to limit the signals that it aims to threaten the existential security of rivals. All the case studies agree that a perception of mutual existential threat objectives is the most destabilizing single factor in a rivalry"

7/ Another lesson: "Our historical case studies ... provided numerous examples of military capabilities deployed for deterrent purposes or to achieve military advantage that had significant unintended escalatory consequences"

8/ Leading recommendations included the well-worn but crucial requirements to develop stabilizing rules of the road, enhance transparency, strengthen communication channels, take care in deploying the most provocative systems, and build personal relations among senior officials

9/ We also suggest that the US "Look for ways to grant rivals increased status in exchange for creating a trade space for arrangements that would serve U.S. interests and enhance stability." Operationalizing that idea can be tricky but reassurance is a key component of statecraft

10/ In sum: The study emphasizes the simple but critical idea that, alongside actions to set red lines, stand up for US interests, and augment deterrence, attending to the requirements of stability in these contests will be an equally important priority in managing them