“The S&P GSCI U.S. Commodity Price Index has been declining for more than a month; it has fallen 10% since October 24th—marking its largest drop of the recovery. This has left commodity prices essentially unchanged for the last five months ..” @LeutholdGroup
(2/x)

“Industrial prices are off by almost 12% from recovery highs, and rather than surging as they did earlier in the recovery, they have also been trending sideways looking back to early May!”
(3/x)

“The Baltic Freight Rate Index has collapsed since early October, leaving shipping rates virtually unchanged (like industrial com- modity prices), measured back to May.”
(4/x)

“Are inflation fears really getting out of control? .. The two-year inflation outlook has risen to 1.96%, while ten-year inflation is anticipated to be 1.74%. Neither appears alarming, and both are .. still quite tame compared to much of the post-war era.”
(5/x)

Meanwhile, “annual growth in both the Fed’s balance sheet and the M2 money supply peaked earlier this year, in February.”
(6/6)

.. and “massive tax receipts due to a booming economy [have] caused the federal deficit to decline by eight percentage points as a percent of nominal GDP!” [Paulsen]

((END))

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More from @carlquintanilla

9 Sep
“GoodFellas” has its world premiere 31 years ago today, at the Venice Film Festival.

".. There's not a day that goes by that I don't hear somebody mention" it, Ray Liotta once said. "It's defined who I am, in a sense.”

Thread:
Among the early casting ideas:

* Tom Cruise as Henry.
* Madonna as Karen.
* John Malkovich as De Niro’s character, Jimmy.

As Malkovich later told @GQMagazine:

“It’s hard to explain why you end up in ‘Eragon’ instead of ‘GoodFellas’.”// 2
The Copacabana/Steadicam shot was, blocked, lit and filmed in half a day — over seven takes.

Assistant director Joseph Reidy: "It's probably the hardest orchestrated single shot I've ever been involved in." // 3

Read 14 tweets
16 Apr
MORGAN STANLEY: in a 90-page report, says, “The workforce is about to meaningfully change. ..

..”Pre-COVID, about ~5% of [office] employees worked from home [3 or more days per week], whereas our survey suggests this number could grow 4-5x.”

(1/x)
2.

Big implications for IT budgets, as companies reconfigure their networks. Nearly 1/4 say they’ll boost spending by 10%+.
3.

“.. we come away from this survey even more bullish on the PC market as we now see a reopening/return to the office as a clear tailwind to commercial PC demand. As a result, we.. significantly raise our PC market forecast and now estimate PC shipments grow 16.5% Y/Y in 2021”
Read 5 tweets
20 May 20
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)

(1/x)
Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”

(2/x)
More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”

(3/x)
Read 7 tweets
17 May 20
Goldman has an 80-pg report on #COVID19’s impact on the music business — including an estimated 75% decline in live music revenue this year.

Encouragingly, they see a return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022, led by “Gen Z/ Millennial demand” and artists’ need for income

(1/x)
(2/x) it’s well understood that artists command a higher share of live-music income vs. recorded, but this chart really lays it out
(3/x) Goldman says recorded music will be the beneficiary — as streaming revenue booms, and as performance revenues are “affected by a significant decline in royalties from public use (concerts, bars, restaurants, gyms) ..”
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr 20
JPMORGAN: “We believe we’ve seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago,.. deaths will peak in about a week, so we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. .. And we think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year” (Kolanovic)
JPMORGAN: We are overweight equities because global stocks have declined “around 35% on average, and we’ve seen significant de-rating and a positioning flush. .. The near-term economic hit will be horrendous, but investors will focus on 2021 and even 2022.” (Lakos-Bujas)

(2/3)
JPMORGAN: “Every recession typically accelerates pre-existing trends, such as work-from-home or a preference for online retail.. This will increasingly challenge traditional business models.. Looking ahead, ‘winner takes all’ is bound to remain the dominant theme within equities”
Read 4 tweets
28 Mar 20
How about a Friday-night thread for Quentin Tarantino’s birthday, today? 🔥

My 5 Favorite Things About QT:

#1: He’s a master of suspense. ‘What’s in Marcellus’s briefcase?’ ‘What’s behind the screen door?’

“Once Upon A Time in .. Hollywood” (2019)
#2: .. Tarantino gets a lot of flack for being, shall we say, “wordy”.

But he’s actually one of the savviest purveyors of SILENCE.

“Pulp Fiction” (1994)
... In “Pulp Fiction”, Mia even complains about silence.

“Don’t you hate that?”

“Hate what.”

“Uncomfortable silence.”

Read 10 tweets

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