“The S&P GSCI U.S. Commodity Price Index has been declining for more than a month; it has fallen 10% since October 24th—marking its largest drop of the recovery. This has left commodity prices essentially unchanged for the last five months ..” @LeutholdGroup
(2/x)
“Industrial prices are off by almost 12% from recovery highs, and rather than surging as they did earlier in the recovery, they have also been trending sideways looking back to early May!”
(3/x)
“The Baltic Freight Rate Index has collapsed since early October, leaving shipping rates virtually unchanged (like industrial com- modity prices), measured back to May.”
(4/x)
“Are inflation fears really getting out of control? .. The two-year inflation outlook has risen to 1.96%, while ten-year inflation is anticipated to be 1.74%. Neither appears alarming, and both are .. still quite tame compared to much of the post-war era.”
(5/x)
Meanwhile, “annual growth in both the Fed’s balance sheet and the M2 money supply peaked earlier this year, in February.”
(6/6)
.. and “massive tax receipts due to a booming economy [have] caused the federal deficit to decline by eight percentage points as a percent of nominal GDP!” [Paulsen]
((END))
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MORGAN STANLEY: in a 90-page report, says, “The workforce is about to meaningfully change. ..
..”Pre-COVID, about ~5% of [office] employees worked from home [3 or more days per week], whereas our survey suggests this number could grow 4-5x.”
(1/x)
2.
Big implications for IT budgets, as companies reconfigure their networks. Nearly 1/4 say they’ll boost spending by 10%+.
3.
“.. we come away from this survey even more bullish on the PC market as we now see a reopening/return to the office as a clear tailwind to commercial PC demand. As a result, we.. significantly raise our PC market forecast and now estimate PC shipments grow 16.5% Y/Y in 2021”
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)
(1/x)
Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”
(2/x)
More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”
Goldman has an 80-pg report on #COVID19’s impact on the music business — including an estimated 75% decline in live music revenue this year.
Encouragingly, they see a return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022, led by “Gen Z/ Millennial demand” and artists’ need for income
(1/x)
(2/x) it’s well understood that artists command a higher share of live-music income vs. recorded, but this chart really lays it out
(3/x) Goldman says recorded music will be the beneficiary — as streaming revenue booms, and as performance revenues are “affected by a significant decline in royalties from public use (concerts, bars, restaurants, gyms) ..”
JPMORGAN: “We believe we’ve seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago,.. deaths will peak in about a week, so we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. .. And we think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year” (Kolanovic)
JPMORGAN: We are overweight equities because global stocks have declined “around 35% on average, and we’ve seen significant de-rating and a positioning flush. .. The near-term economic hit will be horrendous, but investors will focus on 2021 and even 2022.” (Lakos-Bujas)
(2/3)
JPMORGAN: “Every recession typically accelerates pre-existing trends, such as work-from-home or a preference for online retail.. This will increasingly challenge traditional business models.. Looking ahead, ‘winner takes all’ is bound to remain the dominant theme within equities”