MORGAN STANLEY: in a 90-page report, says, “The workforce is about to meaningfully change. ..
..”Pre-COVID, about ~5% of [office] employees worked from home [3 or more days per week], whereas our survey suggests this number could grow 4-5x.”
(1/x)
2.
Big implications for IT budgets, as companies reconfigure their networks. Nearly 1/4 say they’ll boost spending by 10%+.
3.
“.. we come away from this survey even more bullish on the PC market as we now see a reopening/return to the office as a clear tailwind to commercial PC demand. As a result, we.. significantly raise our PC market forecast and now estimate PC shipments grow 16.5% Y/Y in 2021”
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)
(1/x)
Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”
(2/x)
More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”
Goldman has an 80-pg report on #COVID19’s impact on the music business — including an estimated 75% decline in live music revenue this year.
Encouragingly, they see a return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022, led by “Gen Z/ Millennial demand” and artists’ need for income
(1/x)
(2/x) it’s well understood that artists command a higher share of live-music income vs. recorded, but this chart really lays it out
(3/x) Goldman says recorded music will be the beneficiary — as streaming revenue booms, and as performance revenues are “affected by a significant decline in royalties from public use (concerts, bars, restaurants, gyms) ..”
JPMORGAN: “We believe we’ve seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago,.. deaths will peak in about a week, so we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. .. And we think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year” (Kolanovic)
JPMORGAN: We are overweight equities because global stocks have declined “around 35% on average, and we’ve seen significant de-rating and a positioning flush. .. The near-term economic hit will be horrendous, but investors will focus on 2021 and even 2022.” (Lakos-Bujas)
(2/3)
JPMORGAN: “Every recession typically accelerates pre-existing trends, such as work-from-home or a preference for online retail.. This will increasingly challenge traditional business models.. Looking ahead, ‘winner takes all’ is bound to remain the dominant theme within equities”
Sixteen years ago today, “Lost in Translation” premieres in the US.
How about a quick thread on Sofia Coppola’s masterpiece:
2. Coppola based the film on time she spent in Tokyo in her 20’s. “I got married not long before and kind of felt isolated. I was in this stage where I wasn’t sure if I’d made the right choices.”
3. “I’d seen Scarlett in a movie called ‘Manny & Lo’ when she was like 12 and I just loved her. She had that husky voice even then and seemed mature beyond her years.”
* Tom Cruise as Henry.
* Madonna as Karen.
* John Malkovich as De Niro’s character, Jimmy.
“It’s hard to explain why you end up in ‘Eragon’ instead of ‘GoodFellas’,” Malkovich once told @GQMagazine.
3. "I was told that GoodFellas is the most expensive movie soundtrack in history. Marty used like thirty seconds of a Rolling Stones song; he had to have it." - @Illeanarama