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Robert Peston

@Peston

28 Nov

@sajidjavid

🧵 @sajidjavid told Marr this morning it would be possible to quarantine for ten days in a timely way the contacts of those with Omicron because the new Covid variant comes up negative for the “S” gene in PCR tests (what he called “S gene drop out”), unlike Delta. 1/

I had already been told about this helpful characteristic of some PCR tests, which would allow rapid detection of Omicron growth relative to Delta. But I was also told only just over a third of tests carried out by NHS Test and Trace had the ability to check for the S gene. 2/

@UKHSA

So although this characteristic of some PCR tests would help @UKHSA chart the growth of Omicron, it would not achieve just-in-time quarantining of contacts of those infected with Omicron, because for two thirds of Covid positives, gene sequencing would be required. 3/

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Robert Peston

@Peston

13 Nov

I am wondering whether I've been naive in thinking that the COP26 draft cover declaration will keep 1.5 degrees alive, and whether I have attached too much weight to paragraph 29 that "requests" countries toughen up their commitments to reduce emissions before 2030. My...

concern, reinforced by the US agreement with China, is that China will feel under little pressure to bring forward its commitment that its greenhouse gas emissions should peak by 2030. And unless China becomes more ambitious, there is no prospect of global warming...

@AlokSharma_RDG

being limited to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Much will depend therefore on how paragraph 29 is implemented. There will be a huge and heavy burden on @AlokSharma_RDG, as COP president for a year - and by implication on @BorisJohnson too - to be guardian and...

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Robert Peston

@Peston

12 Nov

@MarosSefcovic

Having heard the @MarosSefcovic press conference and read the @DavidGHFrost statement, it is clear that the decision by @BorisJohnson whether to trigger Article 16 and start a damaging trade war with the EU will almost certainly be a purely political one by him, because...

Sefcovic and Frost are working to ease the friction on trade between GB and Northern Ireland, with the flow of medicines a priority. All will depend on two issues: whether Johnson regards it as a matter of overwhelming importance that the European Court of Justice should...

have no role in adjudicating on Northern Ireland European single market trade disputes, since the EU will not budge on this; and whether the putative domestic political benefits to him of having yet another punch up with the EU outweigh the inevitable economic costs of a trade...

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Robert Peston

@Peston

31 Oct

There has been a notable breakthrough on climate change at the #G20Italia meeting of the 20 most powerful world leaders in Rome, with a statement in the communiqué that pledges they will take further action to formulate, implement, update and enhance…

commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases “ahead” of 2030. According to an official, this sets up #COP26 to “to deliver a short term acceleration [in greenhouse gas emissions] through the negotiations”. Several officials tell me…

that for them this is a much better G20 outcome than they expected even yesterday. Which may tell you something about the poverty of ambition of world leaders when it comes to climate change. And it gives a following wind to the idea I discussed yesterday that this COP…

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Robert Peston

@Peston

25 Oct

@KwasiKwarteng

The national living wage is set to be increased from £8.91 per hour to £9.50 I understand, on the advice of the Low Pay Commission. The recommendation has been put to the business secretary, @KwasiKwarteng, who is the minister responsible for the Commission. The 6.6%...

@RishiSunak

increase in what is the minimum wage for all those over 22 years old has been accepted by Kwarteng. It will be formally announced by the Chancellor, @RishiSunak, in the budget on Wednesday. The rise is inflation-busting, and will go some way to compensating the low paid...

for recent significant rises in the price of energy, petrol and food, at a time when the £1000 a year top-up to Universal Credit has been (controversially) removed. The rise will increase employers' costs directly and probably also via an upward ratchet of the wage rates of...

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Robert Peston

@Peston

22 Oct

I pointed out three months ago that daily dashboard infection figures don’t include anyone infected for a second time, and that I thought this unfortunate, because by definition it means those daily figures are not the whole Covid19 story. These daily figures…

still don’t include re-infections, even though a SAGE paper published today confirms that previous Covid19 infection provides “less protection against infection with Delta than against previous virus variants”. See attached. And this lessened protection will only…

increase with the passage of time, as antibody protection wanes. So today’s infection total of just under 50,000 is an understatement. It might be only a small understatement, of perhaps a couple of percentage points (which would be the magnitude implied by other surveillance…

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