Thread by @NatBullard

A short 🧵on challenges of even short-term forecasts of exponential markets: solar PV.
1. @IEA: 150+ gigawatts this year base case. Base is up from 2020, and it's already a bonkers figure: way more than biggest annual coal+gas additions ever iea.org/reports/renewa…

2. But that base is probably too low. And the accelerated case is right around where @BloombergNEF and @solar_chase have our case (~180GW), but as Jenny says, "there's always more solar than you think there is" so maybe that's low

https://twitter.com/solar_chase/status/1466085052756934673?s=20

3. Then there's this data, from @laurimyllyvirta: trailing 12 months of Chinese PV cell manufacturing output is 227 gigawatts (which is 50%+ of last year's global installations)!

https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1466028127101104136?s=20

4. Now, not all of that is going in the ground this year (some is stuck at sea; some is being safe harboured, etc etc) but it does mean that 2021 installations could easily exceed even accelerated growth forecasts, or exceed 200 gigawatts.

https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1466028127101104136?s=20

5. Finally - solar PV generation (power generated, not panels installed) is growing at a nearly 39% compound growth rate the last 10 years. The scenario above will probably accelerate that! It makes the future...interesting. More on that tomorrow.

6. As @solar_chase says, at some point she will be wrong to keep pressing her team to up the high end of the annual range. But, this year is probably not it. /end

https://twitter.com/solar_chase/status/1466090679361286148?s=20