Evidence that T cell immunity generated by vaccine is not fooled by mutations or variants

Study from India shows CD4 & CD8 T cell response was conserved for delta & for the older version of the virus.

This is because there are UNCHANGEABLE parts of the spike protein.

1/16
For those new to immunology, broadly speaking:

🔹Neutralising antibody levels correlate with protection from infection in the nose and throat, while T cell Immunity guards against organ damage and severe disease.

Will explain below 👇

2/
🌳 Imagine the spike protein to be a mango tree. Antibodies target the fruit, while T cells target large branches. Mutations are like mangoes that change their appearance. Hence, a few antibodies can get ‘fooled’.

But the branches are unchanged; hence T cells work as usual.

3/
What most people do not emphasise is that it is not only the neutralising antibodies that are important. It is true that some mutations do affect neutralising antibodies.

However there are hundreds of other antibodies (“binding”) targeted at other parts of the spike protein.

4/
Neutralising antibodies are primarily involved with preventing the virus from getting inside our cells. They prevent infection.

T cells come to our rescue when the virus has gotten past these antibodies and has entered the cells. T cells detect and destroy infected cells.

5/
Thus, T cells not only prevent the virus from spreading from cell to cell, but also protect our organs from damage.

In other words, neutralising antibodies are good at stopping the infection from occurring, while T cells help in preventing organ damage (simplification).

5/
There are numerous other antibodies - apart from “neutralising antibodies”. These appear within 10 days of the 1st dose, along with T cells.

These “binding antibodies” recognise multiple parts of the spike protein, tagging it for our immune system to easily detect & destroy.

6/
Even after the total antibody level (neutralising and binding type) drops after a few months, a small baseline level is maintained. Importantly, an extensive library of memory cells is kept waiting to respond to any infection in the future.

7/
Coming back to the study, this was a “test-negative case-control study” design, which showed that vaccines are effective at reducing infection as well as severe disease.

🔹What is also interesting is that the first dose of vaccine was also effective against severe disease.

8/
Even though the confidence interval was 46-94, the findings correlate with recent observations from England, Northern Ireland and Wales, where a 1st dose of vaccine appeared to be almost as effective as 2nd dose in preventing critical illness. Will link that tweet below.

9/
This fits the biological plausibility model - where T-cell library is created with the FIRST encounter, while a 2nd dose chiefly serves to amplify the antibody level using the principle of an anamnestic response.

Thus, chance of infection is low in the initial few months.

10/
This paper also cross references previous work that showed that 93% of CD4 and 97% of CD8T cell epitopes (recognisable parts) are conserved (unaffected by mutations) - ❗️EVEN IN VARIANTS.

In spite of mutations, there are conserved regions in the spike protein eg. S340-S365.

11/
In summary, the virus will never be able to completely evade our immune response, even though we will continue to see studies from laboratories that claim “reduction in neutralisation titres”, and scary pronouncements on mutations that threaten to “escape” our antibodies.

12/
The findings of the study correlate EXACTLY what we are seeing on the ground. A large number of doctors have consistently reported that the chance of getting severe disease is extremely rare among the vaccinated population, and also among previously infected people.

13/
Those who are new to immunology, technical papers & alarming tweets can lead to a sense of doom -which is far from the truth.

What the world needs is for people to receive 2 doses of vaccine ASAP, at least 1 dose for those with past infection to boost their antibody levels.

14/
We must also not forget that vaccination is only one of four pillars of preventing the pandemic.

Pandemic control is like a chair with four legs, the other three include wearing masks (particularly while indoors), improving room ventilation, and reducing indoor gatherings.

15/
What we see now is ignoring the other 3 legs - and focusing solely on vaccinations. This is the wrong strategy, and is also one of the reasons why even wealthy nations are not able to control it.

All 4 legs are equally important. Vaccination is not a substitute for NPI.

16/16
The effect of 1st dose vaccine in reducing severe disease (not infection) is worthy of more study. It is biologically plausible.

See thread above 👆 for context
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More from @RajeevJayadevan

3 Dec
A few takeaways from this booster study from India’s perspective (we use adenovirus vector [AstraZeneca, Sputnik V] & inactivated vaccine)

They compared 2 groups of people: double vaccinated Pfizer and double vaccinated AstraZeneca.

A big menu of 3rd dose vaccines was used.

1/
The 3rd dose used were AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, Valneva (French inactivated vaccine), J&J, CureVac (mRNA), NovaVax (subunit, Spike protein).

They measured antibody level & T cell response after this dose, and compared between various combinations. See paper for graphs.

2/
The first thing we must remember is that antibody level is not an exact correlate of how much protection is achieved.

In other words, if “double” the antibody level is produced by a particular vaccine, it does not mean that symptomatic infection rate will be “cut in half”.

3/
Read 19 tweets
3 Dec
Early indications that certain monoclonal antibodies in current use might still be effective against omicron.

This lab study using pseudotyped viruses bearing some of the key mutations of omicron showed the effect wasn’t blunted.

Thread👇

1/6

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
The obvious theoretical question that comes with Omicron is that the extraordinary number of mutations in certain key areas could potentially alter the target of these antibodies to a point where the “missiles miss their target”.

2/
Particularly because these mutations occur in a part of the spike protein that binds to the ACE-2 receptor, called the RBD.

However, there are several parts of the spike protein that remain unchanged, which means that the ENTIRE TARGET cannot be changed by the virus.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec
Updates from this week’s Tuesday COVID-19 meeting that I have been chairing since the onset of the pandemic.

This week we audited 105 deaths, and found something significant:

🔹Unvaccinated individuals were 17.6 times more likely to die, compared to vaccinated.

More updates👇
In a Kerala village of 15,000 (adult) population, only 38 were unwilling to take vaccine.

🔹This translates to a vaccination acceptance of 99.8%

Note: we don’t have mandates here.

The few remaining unvaccinated were recently or currently infected (90 day gap advised)

2/2
Tuesday COVID-19 meeting update #3

Although “overall CFR (case fatality rate) is low”, doctors pointed out that this is a misleading statement, underestimating the destructive power of the virus. It is like saying “everyone in India is 28 years old”

CFR is high @ older age

1/3
Read 5 tweets
30 Nov
Had tweeted on this topic since last year.

Mutations are more likely to occur when the virus gets a chance to LIVE FOR A LONG TIME (a few months, as opposed to 10-14 days in most healthy people) in an individual patient, e.g. immunosuppressed.

1/6

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
The reason is that 1-2 weeks might not be enough for virus to STUDY our immune system, MUTATE, and THEN select the best candidates from all the mutants produced.

Therefore, it is far more likely to occur after prolonged SARS-CoV2 virus infections.

2/
Besides, these patients could easily get infected at hospitals from other patients who could be harbouring chronic infection by the virus which has already added a few mutations.

Plasma therapy (essentially an antibody buffet) helped addition of mutations in such patients.

3/
Read 10 tweets
29 Nov
P681R Mutation located next to the furin cleavage site of Spike protein of Delta variant appears to increase its ability to create syncytium.

Among all the variants to date, delta does this the most. But the mutation alone doesn’t mean anything.

1/3

nature.com/articles/s4158…
Other sub-lineages of delta with the same mutation failed to make an impact. Thus, the success of a variant depends on more than the sum of its mutations.

Clearly, almost like a lottery, some combinations work better than others, while the remainder (vast majority) perish.

2/3
The omicron variant has three mutations at the furin cleavage site, H655Y, N679K and P681H (not P681R). Thanks @firefoxx66 (for👇)

P681H sits 5 residues upstream of the FCS, was seen in variants circulating in the UK, (alpha), US as well as Nigeria.

3/3

covariants.org/variants/21K.O…
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
Apples 🍎 to oranges 🍊 comparison alert

Ref. A recent small retrospective study on Covaxin showed “50% effectiveness”. See link for paper & comment

I saw @GargiRawat was unfairly criticised for reporting

See thread; it takes time to understand👇

1/16

thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
1. The original efficacy study on Covaxin was a randomised controlled trial involving over 25,798 people.

This showed 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic disease, 93.4% against severe disease, 63.6% for asymptomatic and 65.2% at delta variant. Had tweeted in detail earlier.

2/
A randomised study starts with 2 groups of people. One gets vaccine, the other gets placebo. They are observed “prospectively” that is looking forward-during a study period. Disease outcomes are measured & compared between the groups. The % difference is reported as efficacy.

3/
Read 20 tweets

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