The obvious theoretical question that comes with Omicron is that the extraordinary number of mutations in certain key areas could potentially alter the target of these antibodies to a point where the “missiles miss their target”.
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Particularly because these mutations occur in a part of the spike protein that binds to the ACE-2 receptor, called the RBD.
However, there are several parts of the spike protein that remain unchanged, which means that the ENTIRE TARGET cannot be changed by the virus.
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The makers of the monoclonal antibody (who did this study) say that they use a Spike RBD epitope at position S309, away from the RBM (receptor binding motif) which is less likely to be the focus of recurring mutations.This epitope is shared with the original SARS 2003 virus.
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This study was done on a partial set of mutations in the lab. Authors believe that the remaining mutations might not affect the final results.
That’s because those remaining mutations are located outside the target area of these monoclonal antibodies.
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Further studies (using the full set of mutations) will confirm whether these early findings will actually correlate with clinical results.
Lab studies are important, but they should not be confused with actual patient outcomes.
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The 3rd dose used were AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, Valneva (French inactivated vaccine), J&J, CureVac (mRNA), NovaVax (subunit, Spike protein).
They measured antibody level & T cell response after this dose, and compared between various combinations. See paper for graphs.
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The first thing we must remember is that antibody level is not an exact correlate of how much protection is achieved.
In other words, if “double” the antibody level is produced by a particular vaccine, it does not mean that symptomatic infection rate will be “cut in half”.
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🔹Neutralising antibody levels correlate with protection from infection in the nose and throat, while T cell Immunity guards against organ damage and severe disease.
Will explain below 👇
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🌳 Imagine the spike protein to be a mango tree. Antibodies target the fruit, while T cells target large branches. Mutations are like mangoes that change their appearance. Hence, a few antibodies can get ‘fooled’.
But the branches are unchanged; hence T cells work as usual.
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Updates from this week’s Tuesday COVID-19 meeting that I have been chairing since the onset of the pandemic.
This week we audited 105 deaths, and found something significant:
🔹Unvaccinated individuals were 17.6 times more likely to die, compared to vaccinated.
More updates👇
In a Kerala village of 15,000 (adult) population, only 38 were unwilling to take vaccine.
🔹This translates to a vaccination acceptance of 99.8%
Note: we don’t have mandates here.
The few remaining unvaccinated were recently or currently infected (90 day gap advised)
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Tuesday COVID-19 meeting update #3
Although “overall CFR (case fatality rate) is low”, doctors pointed out that this is a misleading statement, underestimating the destructive power of the virus. It is like saying “everyone in India is 28 years old”
Mutations are more likely to occur when the virus gets a chance to LIVE FOR A LONG TIME (a few months, as opposed to 10-14 days in most healthy people) in an individual patient, e.g. immunosuppressed.
The reason is that 1-2 weeks might not be enough for virus to STUDY our immune system, MUTATE, and THEN select the best candidates from all the mutants produced.
Therefore, it is far more likely to occur after prolonged SARS-CoV2 virus infections.
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Besides, these patients could easily get infected at hospitals from other patients who could be harbouring chronic infection by the virus which has already added a few mutations.
Plasma therapy (essentially an antibody buffet) helped addition of mutations in such patients.
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Other sub-lineages of delta with the same mutation failed to make an impact. Thus, the success of a variant depends on more than the sum of its mutations.
Clearly, almost like a lottery, some combinations work better than others, while the remainder (vast majority) perish.
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The omicron variant has three mutations at the furin cleavage site, H655Y, N679K and P681H (not P681R). Thanks @firefoxx66 (for👇)
P681H sits 5 residues upstream of the FCS, was seen in variants circulating in the UK, (alpha), US as well as Nigeria.
1. The original efficacy study on Covaxin was a randomised controlled trial involving over 25,798 people.
This showed 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic disease, 93.4% against severe disease, 63.6% for asymptomatic and 65.2% at delta variant. Had tweeted in detail earlier.
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A randomised study starts with 2 groups of people. One gets vaccine, the other gets placebo. They are observed “prospectively” that is looking forward-during a study period. Disease outcomes are measured & compared between the groups. The % difference is reported as efficacy.
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