A lot of evidence shows that our lifestyles of looking at papers, screens, and phones indoors all day contributes to widespread deterioration in eyesight.
Now imagine if we work from home more, drive less, and wear VR goggles for hours a day...
And then of course we had the inverse correlation between technology and depression. Hunter gathers have rather rough lives but what we think of as depression is nearly nonexistent among them. They have plenty of exercise, decent diet, and frequent flow state.
Modern society requires that we make increasingly conscious choices to go outside, get exercise, and look into the distance, so that we can get the benefits of technology without the physical and mental deterioration that often comes with it.
Even when it comes to reproduction, things that would have harmed a person's probability of reproduction ages ago (e.g. bad eyesight -> bad hunter) become non-issues that we can correct with simple tech, and so those problems more readily carry onto later generations.
Why do we usually envision aliens as small, frail, nearly-featureless beings?
It's because we subconsciously envision them to have so much technology that their physical form deteriorates via non-selection over time as they become entirely reliant on that technology.
Apart from conscious lifestyle choices (get outside, exercise, look far away), or societal collapse that re-prioritizes physical attributes for survival, probably only a big increase in gene editing tech can address this structural trend. But then we get Gattaca type stuff.
Anyway, gm.
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Blue line is 10-year Treasury yields. Orange line is the annualized inflation-adjusted "real" rate of return if you bought a 10-year Treasury note that year and held it until maturity.
Bonds got killed on a real basis in all three inflationary decades (1910s, 1940s, 1970s).
If you compound -4% annual inflation-adjusted returns over a decade, you lose a third of your purchasing power on consumer goods by the end of the period.
And during that period, you probably lose more than that in terms of your purchasing power of prime capital goods.
So the bond market is "smart money" in that it does a good job of grasping tactical acceleration/deceleration moves, but isn't smart enough to avoid 30-40% losses of purchasing power over the course of a decade on three separate occasions.
All of my equity research over the past 4-5 years can basically summarized with Anakin here.
Most of the other asset classes (besides a few like bitcoin) have been even less attractive than expensive stocks, so the stocks just kept going up. That valuation expansion will end eventually, maybe in 2022 or who knows.
For lack of good money, everyone monetized other assets.
So I've been overweight equities, trying to avoid the silly ones, and letting it all run. Now eventually, everyone will be so piled into equities that it'll stop working. Individual stocks and sectors will become more separated.
In terms of the structural US trade deficit, it's often said that the US exports paper to get real goods. We give the rest of the world dollars, and they give us commodities, consumer goods, etc.
However, that's not the full picture. The foreign sector then takes those dollars and buys US financial assets (stocks, bonds, real estate), and thus owns a greater and greater share of our productive hard assets.
In other words, what the US is primarily doing, is selling our appreciating financial assets for depreciating consumer assets.
Once the debt ceiling is resolved (December?), the Treasury targets a $750-$800 billion cash balance (will they revise that?), meaning they have to issue a lot more bonds than they're spending for, at a time when the Fed is maybe reducing their rate of asset purchases.
I'm looking back through my Feb 2021 thread, with the update being that it's all pushed back half a year due to the debt ceiling (Treasury had to draw TGA down ~$800B more than they wanted).
So, instead of being a 2H 2021 thing, it's a 1H 2022 thing.
In the BMC Q3 Livestream today, the CEO of $MARA said several of the largest utilities in North America have teams researching #bitcoin mining and co-location.
In other words, on-site bitcoin mining as a utility load balancer and profit maximizer.🧵
The CEO of $MARA also said he believes that power companies will likely become some of the largest bitcoin miners/hosters over time. I think that's true (in addition to a healthy amount of off-grid miners).
There are always-on sources of power like nuclear, hydro, geo, and then variable power like solar/wind.
Demand fluctuates too.
During times when power supply exceeds demand, utilities need a way to profitably use that power, or they waste it. Enter co-located bitcoin mining.