Once you have read below thread and not yet bored, come and read this
3. If really doing fundamental investing, have your own conviction. Going through someone else research work is not conviction. Actual individual research starts after that
4. If technical guy, build your own system or process than seeking buy sell tips on social media. charts change views change, results change views change, its better to learn 1 time than asking 1000 times
5. Use social media to gather ideas but use your own filters
6. Above all, remember this. Both bulls are bears are thumping their own ego, nothing else, not their fault, human (me too guilty - both sides).
You do your job because ITS YOUR MONEY. DO THE HARD WORK, BUILD YOUR OWN STYLE WHICH WORKS FOR YOU
A thread🧵 on so called market traps of transitionary performing stocks which leads to retail getting stuck. Doing as lot of tweets floating on such stocks.
Will take example of one of such stock with my own twitter history though I never presented in public #Neulandlabs
1. If you think, every performing stock will become an Asian paints, you are in for disaster. 99% of businesses are cyclic, only quantum differs. So, either do not overpay or if overpaying a bit and have confidence in the business, then,
hold for long (15-20% of companies still in long run generate 15%+ CAGR). One should know his time frame, expectation, price he or she is paying and what kind of investor class he belongs to. This is how story usually starts and ends:
You may skip initial tweets but do read last 7-8 tweets because that is where the key risks are and some of them are least discussed
Please like and retweet for better reach🙏
The good side: Why health insurance sector?
High Growth Industry
Huge Market Size Opportunity
Yet to catch up with worldwide average
Shift from public to private
Good future opportunity size and growth prospects if India’s GDP can grow
health insurance expected to grow at ~16% CAGR over FY20-30E with an assumption of ~53% penetration (penetration in USA at 91% as of CY17 ), 1% CAGR population growth of 1% CAGR and 6% medical inflation
Now take its peer. Did almost the same stuff. cashflows 4x but could maintain margins, show some growth. Screwed on 5 year basis but decent return on 10 year basis at 19% CAGR.
Well, current PE of NIFTY is 40 but there is more..
A thread covering these questions. 1st thing, uploaded a youtube video on the same. Can watch it n subscribe to channel if like 🙂
The 40 PE of NIFTY is considering TTM earnings (in the table) which includes quarters affected by Covid and we all know that there were temporary business shutdowns due to Covid. So, is not this an outlier situation. So, how to handle it
One way to handle it is- Ignore Covid quarters and go back to previous quarters assuming same performance during Covid quarters. Now the 40 PE reduces to 32.4. Almost a 20% reduction