Thread by @nicktolhurst

+UPDATE+

Conservatives retain the seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup - but Conservative votes collapses by 2 thirds from what it was in 2019.

Majority slashed from 19 000 to just 4 400 - the 2nd lowest Tory majority in the constituency’s history.

While from the start it looked extremely unlikely the seat would go labour - it has never voted anything but Tory and was one of strongest pro Leave areas in London - the Tory vote was so low that had Labour managed to switch just 2 300 votes the seat would have flipped.

Turnout low for all parties which was to be expected in a non marginal by election in winter - tho interestingly not for the far right RefUK party which could be an problem interesting problem if this holds up in London seats at next the General election.

Positives for labour was slashed Tory majority and the fact that clearly LibDems mended their vote.

Negatives was the fact that it looks like labour votes didn’t (logically given seat history) quite believe they had the power to flip the election and so labour turnout also down.

Positives for labour was slashed Tory majority and the fact that clearly some LibDems lent their vote.

Negatives was the fact it looks like labour votes didn’t (logically given seat history) quite believe they had the power to flip the election and so labour turnout also down.

My takeaway:

This seat was unlikely to flip - but the scale of low Tory voter turnout + the number of those prepared to vote for (in effect) the Brexit party legacy party - RefUK in a post Brexit environment could mean that more marginal Conservative London & SE seats in play.