Did a poll in my TG Group - and PA was what people wanted to see most, so:
Let's take a look at $SRM
Agenda:
- Range
- FVG's
- nPOC's
- Potential PO3
- Putting it all together
- $BTC and behaving itself
Range:
For this range, we're using the Daily Chart, with some market structure utilised to frame ourselves, and our bias
FVG's, Fair Value Gaps
What we're looking for here is where price moves away quickly from an area, leaving no corresponding candle closes between a candles body (ie wicks, or other candles).
FVG's can be used for bullish or bearish scenarios
FVG's Cont'd
Beware though, as there is an FVG perched below the range too
nPOC's, or Naked Points of Control
Where price has spent the most time in a given session (using the daily here on the @tradingview VPSV tool
We've got a cluster of nPOC's above us as shown by the red lines (one beneath us too)
Potential PO3, Power of Three
- Accumulation (in blue)
- Manipulation (red)
- Distribution (green)
Price trades at a certain level, is pushed down to where liquidity lies, and then taken to the next untapped liquidity zone.
Putting it all together
Pardon the technicolour 80's rave below, but this is to show how our factors of confluence could line up to give some take profit levels at FVG's, or nPOC's etc
Completely up to you of course.
Price loves to run to liquidity, use this to your advantage
$BTC behaving itself
With Bitcoin ranging at the moment, we need to be very careful with how the cards are played.
If entry is made, you've got to keep an eye on the king.
If BTC ranges for a bit, this could play out well, but this needs some time.
If this has helped you understand the nuances of PA a little bit more, or to be more specific, framing a PA trade, please feel free to share.
No stress or obligation though, just do what you can with the info and education.
Have a good WE, keep learning, and stay hungry!
🤝💪
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Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above