First @UKHSA Tech Briefing of the #Omicron era. A lot of scene setting, as it is very early days (I'd guess there's going to be a bit more info in next week's report, and loads more the week after that). But a few early things I think worth noting: 🧵
Annotated table of defining mutations is quite handy, and runs over six pages (this lineage has a lot of mutations).
The 22 UK sequences in this report sit all over the global tree, suggesting multiple recent imports. This picture will change fast as we add more sequences.
There was no Omicron in the UK in the summer. Trust me.
One mutation in Omicron allows it to be picked up with a particular signature in the diagnostic PCR. This "SGTF" has been the leading indicator that Omicron is now dominant in South Africa, and has started going up in UK testing labs.
I had a quick look at the three biggest labs supplying @sangerinstitute sequencing, and you can see this leading indicator in the past couple days is going up fast, and the sequences are just about to catch up. (crisis mode means my..ahem..basic figures get into the report)
So my main take-away is that growth looks fast in a country with immunity mostly from vaccines, rather than previous infection (and with a big ongoing Delta wave). We'll know a lot more soon, but this is not reassuring.
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I'm not sure who these virologists are, but the ones I hang out with are definitely not working their way to this conclusion. This whole thread is based on a rather enormous misunderstanding of phylogenetics. 🧵
The thread looks at one mutation (del69/70) that's in Omicron, Alpha and some Delta in plots from outbreak.info. It asserts older sequences with del69/70 may have been "misclassified" because "we didn't know about Omicron". But we don't look at one mutation at a time!
We classify variants (Alpha, Delta etc) using the whole genome for exactly this reason: some mutations are shared by different variants. If these were Omicron, they would not get called Alpha just because of this one mutation.
Took a look at the spike mutations in B.1.1.529 this evening, and colour coded them (details below)...there is...not much green.🧵
First the obviously bad stuff (red): nine mutations seen in previous VOCs. There's a lot of overlap already among VOCs (convergent evolution), but this variant has an unprecedented sampling from mutations previously seen in Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta separately.
In orange are three mutations that are probably meaningful biological changes for the virus, but not previously seen in VOCs. Two from VUI level lineages that likely had modest advantages over original virus, and E484A which is at a key site in the receptor binding domain.
Proportion of AY.4.2 (now on covid19.sanger.ac.uk) has been steadily increasing in England, which is a pattern that is quite different from other AY lineages. Several of them rose when there was still Alpha to displace, but none has had a consistent advantage vs other Delta.
And it has grown all over the place between mid-July (L) and now (R). AY.4 did a similar thing, but it was not displacing other Delta, and given that it hasn't spread through the world, likely just had some epidemiological luck.
AY.4.2 hasn't yet spread much outside the UK, so could be a fluke (no biological advantage), but given that it's apparent advantage is modest, it needs to really get established somewhere to overcome stochasticity of small numbers.
Technical pre-print up from me and @theosanderson on why G142D is not the world's most recurrent mutation: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… A short 🧵 with highlights, and a tidbit about AY.4.2 to tempt you to read it.
People have noticed that S:G142D seems to appear and disappear on the Delta tree in a very weird fashion. @babarlelephant noted early on that this is due to an issue with the @NetworkArtic V3 primers, one of which is hit by a 6bp deletion in all Delta
In our paper we confirm that if you look not for presence/absence of 142D (e.g. by looking at text strings of mutations in GISAID), but at the actual sequence, all Delta is either D or N (missing data).
Longer answer about this lineage, the challenges of cataloguing the current diversity of #SARSCoV2, the miracle of global open science, and handy questions to ask yourself when you see a new variant report follows in a 🧵.
First off, summary and background on AY.3 and its cousins here:
AY.3 was designated by @PangoNetwork because it was growing in parts of the USA, apparently from a single (or small number of) introductions. This is done NOT because it is necessarily biologically more transmissible but to make it easier to refer to. github.com/cov-lineages/p…
Paper on within-host diversity (credits in Gerry’s tweet) is from the first wave of the pandemic, but the conclusions are timely, as the world wonders how the virus evolved and will evolve. In particular, I think the mutation spectrum is relevant to some interesting questions 🧵
This figure shows relative mutation rate: each colour is a type of mutation like C to A, with the bars showing the context of the bases to the left and right; below the line is the reverse complement (e.g. G to T for blue).Red C>U (C>T in DNA) mutations are by far the most common
In the very early history of the virus in humans it split into the A and B lineages, which (figure from zenodo.org/record/5075888…) differ from each other at two positions, in each case one is C and the other is T. If you just look at these two positions, lineage A is TC and B is CT