No crystal ball here but am familiar with the monetary cycle and stock market history.

Suspect the selling in high growth stocks likely to continue until multiples revert to around pre-COVID levels and when $NDX $SPX have completed their flush, it'll probably be the time to buy.
As long as the Fed is draining liquidity and reducing asset purchases, risk assets are likely to stay under pressure.

At some point in Q1/Q2, we'll probably get a deflationary event/slowdown/crack in inflation and that should prompt the Fed to reverse course + ignite rally.
For the next few weeks/months, safe havens are likely to be US$ cash and 30-Year USTs.

During asset liquidation/post-bubble contractions, capital usually flows to the safety of the senior currency and sovereign debt market, but obviously anything can happen. Time will tell.
Finally, remember crypto is a high-beta speculation on liquidity and as the Fed tightens policy, its likely to get hit along with other risk assets (perhaps more so).

Since taper was announced, Bitcoin has lost ~20% of its value so its correlation with stocks is holding up.

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More from @saxena_puru

1 Dec
1)Portfolio Nov-end -

$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MNDY $MQ $OKTA $PATH $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #DXY

Short - ARK, $NET

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +714.41% (49.11%pa)
$ACWI +74.08% (11.14%pa)
$SPX +110.40% (15.22%pa)

Contd..
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +28.05%
$ACWI +12.42%
$SPX +21.59%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $GLBE 3) $MELI 4) $SNOW 5) $TWLO

Contd....
3) Commentary -

November was a brutal month for growth stocks; once the strong CPI print was announced and the Fed began tapering its QE program, ARK ETFs declined by ~20% within 3 weeks!

Fortunately, due to my hedges and shorts in $ARKG and $RIVN, my drawdown...
Read 11 tweets
26 Nov
The COVID variant getting the blame for the sell-off in risk assets.

Pundits seem to be forgetting that risk assets peaked in early November (after strong CPI print) and the selling has intensified since Fed's taper announcement.

Market has been deteriorating for weeks.
Thanks to unprecedented QE, ecommerce + payments + software + video games and streaming stocks benefited tremendously during the pandemic (their valuations were a lot lower then).

Conditions are very different now - Fed is tightening and valuations are also a lot higher.
Important to ignore the hype + think critically.

Over past year, we learnt about a few COVID-variants but the financial markets largely ignored them because of the Fed's QE program ($120b/month).

Now, a new COVID-variant is rocking risk assets. Why? The Fed is now tapering.
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
The major indices are still near their ATHs and many large caps + mega caps haven't cracked yet.

This suggests that the liquidation isn't over.

Bear-market rallies might take place in the high growth names but for most names, the primary trend is currently down.
Over the following weeks, the contraction is likely to get worse and the stronger US Dollar should cause commodities/inflation to roll over.

Global PMIs also likely to roll over and this will cause an economic slowdown.

Sell-off only likely to end when the Fed becomes dovish.
This sell off is not unexpected, neither is it a 'black swan' event.

The ongoing selling is a rational response to tightening monetary conditions.

The Fed's QE unleashed animal spirits and pushed prices/valuations to an extreme and the market is now discounting its end.
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov
Message to socialists -

"Fair share" of tax means a flat tax (same %) for all taxpayers who pay tax. It does NOT mean fleecing the super wealthy by confiscating their wealth.

After income tax/capital gains tax/wealth tax and inheritance tax, some nations take 65-70% of wealth.
Basic maths - (20% flat tax)

A person who makes $100K pays $20K in tax
A person who makes $1m pays $200K in tax
A person who makes $10m pays $2m in tax
A person who makes $100m pays $20m in tax

Wealthy do pay more tax, even with a flat tax regime.
Penalising the wealthy because they have more money is immoral and wrong.

Inheritance tax is the biggest form of legal theft that exists ---> that capital has already been taxed once or even more than once.

Being ambitious, working hard, saving and investing isn't a crime.
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
1)Portfolio Oct-end -

$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RTY_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +779.77% (52.29%pa)
$ACWI +79.25% (11.95%pa)
$SPX +112.10% (15.65%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +39.18%
$ACWI +16.10%
$SPX +22.61%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $MQ 3) $AFRM 3) $MELI 4) $MTTR

Contd....
3) Commentary -

October was a decent month as my portfolio rebounded with the broad market.

During the month, I grabbed shares of $AFRM $MQ $QS and $TOST and in order to raise cash for these, sold out of a few lower conviction or more mature companies in my portfolio....
Read 12 tweets
28 Oct
The eVTOL industry will grow rapidly over next decade.

Still early days but with its strong management team + Board and incredible partners, Lilium likely to be a big winner.

Current market cap is $2.5b, offers asymmetric r/r.

Do your own DD.

Disclosure - I'm long $LILM
Lilium - Stuttgart to become regional hub for network

I'm long $LILM
Lilium - Management team
Read 6 tweets

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