It may not be pretty, but it is technical/ risk analysis. A H&S possibility...
Given that the upward channel now looks broken to the downside, the chart explores a possible scenario going forward.
It wasn't me. My account is tiny compared to some of the others.😬
Didn't quite expect to see that line tested quite so soon. Once those stops start getting hit....
And 1 hour later....😯
If somehting like the deeper consolidation of the H&S is to be averted, looking at the possibility of another ascending triangle [further described in recent article]. the next couple of months or so will be telling.
Both of the above 'bearish' and bullish' scenarios are further outlined in my recent article... which had an imminent correction in mind. All for the price of a coffee~~
Of course, a naive linear/ deterministic mindset will always struggle with the mapping out of various possibilities aka risk management. The paradigm is strong.😎
Reminder: BTC is in a secular bull market. Don't confuse realism with bearism.🙂
Perceptions are relative. When you're used to seeing hyper-bull posts, realism will *appear* bearish. The reality though is realism is bullish... even with consolidation.
The LGC represents both this secular bull market and the wall of worry that all bull markets climb.
The flaw of hyper-bull posts was the suggestion that it would all be a walk in the park.
The dynamic of this market is starting to now look qualitatively different. What was before an idea [due to increased liquidity and a maturing market] is beginning to be confirmed in the price action. All good.
The point of this post is that, from the macro perspective, even if we were to see an extended consolidation from here this need not be though of as a 'bear market'. That kind of outlook [fear] belongs to a more immature phase of the market along with talk of mulit-year cycles.
Even if price carried on up in the channel at this rate, it would not hit 100K by December.
I'll always answer the odd question or comment that I think might be genuine. Other posts that are obviously boorish or trollish, I'll be blocking for a few months.
For those overly concerned that my realist charts serve to restrain buying at high levels, don't worry. My small account is going to have next to no affect on the market [prob holds for CT altogther]. This worry may actually only be a form of paranoia.😉