Thread by @i_am_jackis

#Bitcoin THREAD 📚

My take on the future cycles & the diminishing significance of halvings

▪️ The end of the 4-year cycle
▪️ Halvings importance declining
▪️ S2F played its role but has come to an end
▪️ Cycles changing

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In the past, cycles were determined & driven a lot by the halvings as it halves the rewards for the miners by 50% every 4 years

In the beginning, the rewards were huge & the halving was very drastic affecting the price a lot but as time goes its importance declines sharply

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As time goes, less & less #BTC is sold on the market by the miners and each halving ensures that the significance of it is declining in absolute numbers.

This leads to the breakdown of the common myth that #Bitcoin is just gonna continue its 4-year cycles for eternity.

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It then becomes obvious that the price & value is gonna become more and more dependant solely by demand and speculation.

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Of course, there is gonna be something like a miners' bottom of profitability and that over time the price will keep on growing due to that and therefore the bottom level for miners' profitability is gonna go up as they need to remain profitable given fewer rewards.

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That however doesn't mean that price cannot be trading below that level for a while, just as we have seen the same thing with #GOLD

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Now we can of course speculate & make assumptions that the demand for #Bitcoin will grow due to its attributes like sound money, SoV, store of energy, inflation hedge, or whatever

Totally possible & probable. Just breaking here the 4-year cycle myth due to halving

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That of course deeply breaks down the S2F cycle as well that has held its importance and I'm still very grateful for its introduction in the past and @100trillionUSD for its creation and marketing

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It was very crucial at the first stages of the #Bitcoin life

But as most #BTC is now in the market, its price & value will be determined by other factors stated above.

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So what now?

I'm really beginning to think that we won't have the usual blow-off top & 2022 bear cycle that many are expecting that aligns with the 4-year cycle.

That ended this year.

Below are the blow-off top cycles

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Instead, I think we just went through a Higher Timeframe re-accumulation and semi Bear market right now.

And that can leave us with a bull market for 2022/23 maybe less, maybe longer. However, it will now be determined by the world demand for it & not halvings anymore

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To some degree I expect us to be moving inside of this lifetime channel.

So no, I do not think #Bitcoin is going to die or w/e they say these days again. However, its moves will be determined by different factors in a different timeframe.

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We can even keep moving up amidst the halving

This was my at least my morning thinking.

What I'm saying here doesn't mean a guarantee. Although I do think it holds a decent value & truth inside.

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My main goal was not to upset anyone but to get you and those smarter than me thinking of this & maybe even come up with better explanations as our goal is the same.

Thanks for reading

As always if you did find it interesting, consider sharing it with others 🙌

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