7 | Net Income margin ➡️Products 5-6%, Services 2-3%, blended 4% on $45T in 2040 = $1.5T of Net Income (~30X in 20Y vs $30-35bn in 2019).
8 | Assume 20-30x PE, $1.5T of Net Income = $40-50T of Equity Value
9 | Add Advertising ~1% of GDP, current GDP $85X grows 3% CAGR 2X to $170T. 1% = $1.6T of Ad Revenue. 25% net income margins = $500bn Net Income. ~20-30X PE = $10-15T.
10 | Assume ~1% of GDP, just product & services = $45T + $15T = $60T of Equity Value in 20Y in 2040. ~6X from current $10T market cap.
11| Add in payments, content, gaming, and other software.
➡️ $100T plus opportunity still ahead of us.
➡️ Biggest Takeaway
Just as when one thinks that it is already so large, and it can’t possibly get any bigger.
There can still be an even larger opportunity ahead of us in the decades ahead.
All one needs is perspective. Aim to be directionally correct, not precisely wrong.
- Atlas +84% 🚀now ~58% of revenues ↗️
(vs 56% in 2Q22, 47% in 3Q21)
- Cust >31K +37% ↗️ +2K QoQ 📶
- Atlas Cust >29.5K +40% ↗️
- Cust >$100k ARR 1,201 +34% ↗️
- Net AR Expansion >120% ✅
- >$0.5bn Rev Run-Rate 📈
1 | Strong 3Q22
“…just to reiterate, our strong performance is really due to again our consistent go to market execution as well as the confluence of the fact that the secular trends are really reinforcing our technical advantages and our growing credibility with customers….”
“Our strong second-quarter results were fueled by the rapid adoption of Elastic Cloud, the increased strategic relevance of our solutions, and continued expansion across our customer base.”
- 4Q22 Rev Guide Flat QoQ $1.05b ➡️
- 4Q33 NDRR to be modestly below 130% mark ➡️
1 | Q4 - Lowest Seasonality
“…for deferred revenue there's two things to remember, which is the seasonality trend of our renewals is that Q1 is the largest quarter for renewals order for renewals and Q4 is the lowest.”
“The third quarter was outstanding, with record revenue. Demand for NVIDIA AI is surging, driven by hyperscale and cloud scale-out, and broadening adoption by more than 25,000 companies.”