🧵 The Signs Were There!

"Some things cannot be taught; they must be experienced"

The growth stock over-valuation signs were obvious.

Experience gives one an intangible feel for the market.

It really helped me save money this time.

10 Tweets from September October & November
1/ Sept 27

A divergence in market indexes vs underlying breadth (i.e: new highs & new lows) is essentially saying:

"Do what I'm doing, not what the averages say I'm doing"

Individual stocks often give the tip before the indexes follow the move.

2/ Sept 30

Nasdaq - 8 Distribution Days in September!

Technically, the market is in a correction!

The market has caught up to the weak breadth that we have been tracking since July.

One always reverts to the other!

200d ma support is a key level.

3/ Oct 4

Breadth doesn't lie because it is what it is - the stocks themselves.

4/ Oct 15th

...A number of growth stock valuations remain absurd.

And people all over are dismissing it.

"It's different this time"

My experience tells me that this is when Mr. Market historically starts teaching lessons.

5/ Oct 19th

Valuations don't matter until they do.

The "do" is in market corrections as they usually fall the fastest and hardest.

6/ Nov 2nd

$CHGG brutal, down 45%.

Valuations starting to matter with some growth stocks.

No position.

7/ Nov 5th

Ugly candle in $NET

I have sold out of the remaining half...

It's extended and the valuation is high.

I'm taking more of a CANSLIM approach lately, my roots.

Huge swings in these growth stocks lately, eating up gains quickly.

8/ Nov 9th

Why all the sells in Oct?
Why so much cash in growth acct?

Have you seen this earnings season?

More than a handful of names have been getting smacked down as the market & economy "climate" changes.

...at better valuations...

9/ Nov 9th

When valuations start to matter, they matter more than the earnings beats.

Lesson time - Mr. Market.

10/ Nov 22nd

Today and the past few weeks are why!

Valuations now matter.

The (growth) market (below the surface) has been giving plenty of hints.

Breadth has been weak.

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More from @cperruna

30 Nov
🧵 Beware Stage 4 | The Declining Phase

A period when the factors that maintained a stock's price during the topping phase give way to the fatigue & pressures of sellers.

Lots of examples:
$FVRR
$TDOC
$PTON
$PDD
$GRWG
$PINS
$ROKU
$DKNG
$ZM
$RDFN
$PYPL
$FSLY
$COUP
$CHGG
$STNE
2/ $FVRR
3/ $TDOC
Read 17 tweets
20 Oct
1/ Occasionally I zoom out to the monthly charts to cancel the "shorter term" noise and view what some winners are doing:

Using the 9 month average in these charts (approx the 200d ma).

$SHOP $ETSY $IIPR $MDB $TTD $CRWD $NET $SE $SQ $ROKU
2/ $SHOP
3/ $ETSY
Read 11 tweets
18 Oct
Q: How do we identify winners?

Fundamentals & Technicals!

Sales & EPS growth QoQ & YoY, 25%+
Institutional sponsorship growing quarterly

Positive Chart action: above major moving averages & trending higher.

Nothing is guaranteed but the above tilts the odds in your favor.
Read 6 tweets
5 Oct
15 Quality Stocks at or near the 200d ma

$AAPL*
$ADBE
$AMAT
$APPS*
$CRWD*
$DOCU
$ESTC
$ETSY
$FB*
$MELI
$PYPL
$SHOP
$SQ*
$V*
$YETI

The stocks above have historically caught support or built bases at or near their respective 200d ma.

*stocks I own

Charts: @MarketSmith
1/ $AAPL
2/ $ADBE
Read 17 tweets
8 Sep
1/ $PATH - $62.46, down 7.5% after hours but the report looks good.

Slides in thread:
1. Overall glance
2. ARR
3. Revenue
4. Profitability
5. Guidance

#HoldingShares
2/ $PATH ARR
3/ $PATH Revenue
Read 5 tweets

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