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Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
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6 Dec, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Big drop in available inventory post Thanksgiving holiday. Down to just 350,000 existing single family homes on the market.

Man, 2022 sure is shaping up to be competitive again for buyers. No relief anywhere in sight.

This week's @AltosResearch video has the details🧵📽️👇

1/7
Buyers still gobbling up available homes as quickly as they can. 17,000 immediate sales last week.

The far right end bar in this chart shows our holiday. This week will bounce back a bit, but volumes mostly lower though New Years.

2/7
Price reductions are lower than normal because demand is not abating. Still only 27% of homes have had price reductions.

Tight supply / high demand dynamic appears to be with us until something major in the economy changes.

3/7
Market time up to just 49 days.

Normally this time of year homes sit for 85-100 days. Since DOM is so strongly seasonal, we can already see how 2022 is going to hit record lows (record fast time to sell) in Q2.

4/7
That brings us to prices: Median single family home price in the US dropped to $3750,000 post Thanksgiving.

Totally normal drop and it really highlights how unusual December last year was. One more price drop over Xmas to come.

5/7
Lots of data in this week's #altosresearch video:

2022 sure is shaping up to be a hot real estate market.
8 minutes, check it out:


6/7
Registration for our December webinar is open. We're going to look at impact potential mortgage rate changes, opportunity for first time buyers

If you need to understand what's likely to happen in the 2022 US real estate market, join us.
12/15 10AM PDT

bit.ly/altos-webinar-…
If you prefer to read the details - these weekly reports are now available on the Altos blog.
blog.altosresearch.com/insights/2022-…

8/7

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More from @mikesimonsen

Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
8 Nov
Help me flesh out (and name) a phenomenon I'm observing?

Postulate: In the social media universe, ALL political/social positions must evolve to where both sides can look at the same underlying data and claim justification.
example 1: covid data. Infection and death rates are evidence that...

A) We have had too many protections and restrictions
or
B) Protections and restrictions have been justified
example 2: inflation. The current inflation rate is evidence that...

A) we're overspending, panic
or
B) we're solving problems, celebrate
Read 5 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
8 Nov
Surprise! Inventory of homes for sale is actually falling faster than expected for this time of year.

Down to just over 400,000 single family homes on the market. Inventory fell by 3% this week.

This week's thread and video with the #altosresearch real estate data
🧵👇
1/6
Demand is staying elevated even as supply shrinks for the holidays. One place to see that is in our Immediate Sales tracker. Still 25% of the new listings of homes for sale are going into contract essentially immediately each week, even as total volume ticks down.

2/6
Another place to see demand strong relative to supply is in the Altos Research Market Action Index. See how the readings have actually been ticking up this fall, when normally they'd be flat to down.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
6 Sep
Home buyers tapping into late summer opportunities!

Even as inventory ticks up this week, prices are holding strong. Median home price in the US this week is $389,000, unchanged from a week ago.

Weekly @AltosResearch US real estate market data thread and video 🧵👇

1/6
We're looking at 10% annual price gains as we wrap summer. You can see the market has cooled down from the insanity of April.

In a few months the lagging measures of home prices, like the Case Shiller will catch up with the Altos data here.

2/6
Inventory rose this week. Up 1.4% to 437,000 unsold single family homes. Even though the 2021 cycle has shifted later by a month, it's likely we're roughly at peak inventory.

Still 25% fewer homes available than last year, but up 42% from the bottom.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
23 Aug
Available inventory of unsold single family homes jumped another 2.2% this week. What the heck is going on? Time to panic? Time to celebrate?

Check out this week's #altosresearch thread and video for the details. Video link below

🧵👇

1/6
Just a few weeks ago I expected inventory to top out at 400,000. We're well past that now and not slowing down. Lots of new sellers hitting the market.

Will we peak at 460,000 in September? 500k in October? Will we end the year with more inventory than we started?

2/6
On the demand side, we can see that buyers are still aggressive even as inventory builds. Our immediate sales tracker hasn't backed off at all.

23% of the 105,000 new listings went into contract within hours or just days of hitting the market.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
26 Jul
Another big pop in available inventory this week.

Are these the distressed sellers everyone's been anticipating for over a year?

Here's this week's #altosresearch look at the US real estate market. Thread and video:

🧵👇

1/7
Inventory rose to 402,000 unsold single family homes. That's a 3.2% climb on top of last week's 4%.
Just last week I said we'd peak below 400k in August. Oops.
But - is it a surge of sellers or cooling buyers?

2/7
Our Immediate Sales tracker has the insight. Of the 104,000 new listings this week. 21,000 of them sold immediately. That's the fewest in months, meaning more stayed unsold. Still crazy high, just slightly less crazy.

But, it's not a surge of distressed sellers.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
5 Apr
*Immediate Sales* are dominating the US real estate market.

The team did a new analysis of Days on Market to yield some powerful insights.

Full weekly market data thread via @AltosResearch 👇👇

Also: webinar this week! Link to register follows.

🧵 1/6
First prices:
Median home price hit $374,000 this week. Prices are, of course, surging each week and will continue through June at least.

Price of the newly listed cohort is showing reassuring signs of normal seasonality. Insane market not getting insanerer.

2/6 Image
Total unsold inventory down to 310,000 single family homes this week. Ticking down a tad each week, not falling dramatically. A few more weeks before we hopefully see increase in this supply metric (🤞)

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets

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