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Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
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23 Aug, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Available inventory of unsold single family homes jumped another 2.2% this week. What the heck is going on? Time to panic? Time to celebrate?

Check out this week's #altosresearch thread and video for the details. Video link below

🧵👇

1/6
Just a few weeks ago I expected inventory to top out at 400,000. We're well past that now and not slowing down. Lots of new sellers hitting the market.

Will we peak at 460,000 in September? 500k in October? Will we end the year with more inventory than we started?

2/6
On the demand side, we can see that buyers are still aggressive even as inventory builds. Our immediate sales tracker hasn't backed off at all.

23% of the 105,000 new listings went into contract within hours or just days of hitting the market.
3/6
The time to sell is very fast, only 28 days on market.

Normally this time of year sellers would be looking at 9 or 10 weeks to sell (close in November!) so sellers start backing off. This year sellers see September so: let's list!

4/6
As a result, prices are holding up nicely. Median price of single family homes in the US this week is $389,990. Down just a tick from last week.

The leading indicator Price of New Listings is at $350k

Watch the video 👇for discussion on the powerful New Listings data

5/6
Big increases in inventory again this week!
Prices holding up as we get late in the season.

All the details in this week's @AltosResearch US housing market video. 10 mins. Don't miss.


6/6

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More from @mikesimonsen

Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
6 Sep
Home buyers tapping into late summer opportunities!

Even as inventory ticks up this week, prices are holding strong. Median home price in the US this week is $389,000, unchanged from a week ago.

Weekly @AltosResearch US real estate market data thread and video 🧵👇

1/6
We're looking at 10% annual price gains as we wrap summer. You can see the market has cooled down from the insanity of April.

In a few months the lagging measures of home prices, like the Case Shiller will catch up with the Altos data here.

2/6
Inventory rose this week. Up 1.4% to 437,000 unsold single family homes. Even though the 2021 cycle has shifted later by a month, it's likely we're roughly at peak inventory.

Still 25% fewer homes available than last year, but up 42% from the bottom.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
26 Jul
Another big pop in available inventory this week.

Are these the distressed sellers everyone's been anticipating for over a year?

Here's this week's #altosresearch look at the US real estate market. Thread and video:

🧵👇

1/7
Inventory rose to 402,000 unsold single family homes. That's a 3.2% climb on top of last week's 4%.
Just last week I said we'd peak below 400k in August. Oops.
But - is it a surge of sellers or cooling buyers?

2/7
Our Immediate Sales tracker has the insight. Of the 104,000 new listings this week. 21,000 of them sold immediately. That's the fewest in months, meaning more stayed unsold. Still crazy high, just slightly less crazy.

But, it's not a surge of distressed sellers.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
5 Apr
*Immediate Sales* are dominating the US real estate market.

The team did a new analysis of Days on Market to yield some powerful insights.

Full weekly market data thread via @AltosResearch 👇👇

Also: webinar this week! Link to register follows.

🧵 1/6
First prices:
Median home price hit $374,000 this week. Prices are, of course, surging each week and will continue through June at least.

Price of the newly listed cohort is showing reassuring signs of normal seasonality. Insane market not getting insanerer.

2/6 Image
Total unsold inventory down to 310,000 single family homes this week. Ticking down a tad each week, not falling dramatically. A few more weeks before we hopefully see increase in this supply metric (🤞)

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
1 Mar
Time for the Monday @AltosResearch real estate market data thread!

This week - unseasonal seasonality!

1/7
Available inventory drops again this week. We're at 325,000 single family homes on the market. No trough in site yet. We've just had no signs of normal seasonal patterns this year.

2/7
The leading indicator prices of the newly listed cohort shot way up again this week. The gray-green line is where you see the market pricing adjusting in real-time to off-the-charts demand. These new listings will be transactions that close at higher prices in the future.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
15 Feb
It's Monday so here's this week's AltosResearch.com Real Estate Inventory Crisis update!

1/5
Inventory drops another couple percent this week. Only 344,000 houses on the market *in the whole country*.

No bottom in sight yet. Thousands of homes going directly into contract bypassing the active inventory numbers altogether.

2/5
Prices are up 10% year over year. This massive price appreciation seems likely to continue for the whole year. Median home price in the US is $345,499 this week.

YoY price changes will jump in a month when the first 2020 lockdown comparisons kick in.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
8 Feb
It's Monday, so it's time for the weekly US real estate data from @AltosResearch

We'll start with the latest view of the Inventory Crisis we're in.

thread 1/6
Total active inventory plummets yet again. Down to 355,000 single family homes on the market. Properties are moving so fast there are another roughly 10,000 that bypassed the active market altogether, going straight into contract, spending essentially zero days on market.
2/6
Unsurprisingly, prices are climbing. Up to $344,900, we're well on our way to another 10% price appreciation year. Massive equity gains for all homeowners.

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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