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7 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Are u ready for some optimism for markets & just life in general? The RBA 🇦🇺, like its government, isn't worried about Omicron as it sees economic recovery even w/ Omicron. Well, bad for bonds but good for outlook! And Indonesia scrapped year-end curbs as vaccination picks up! 🇮🇩
And there is another reason for optimism if u were Australian: China demand of commodity remains high, especially energy. Look at China imports from commodity exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the USA.

And?
All of this commodity import is not just for domestic consumption but also to feed into its manufacturing exports, which continue to be in high demand globally in November.
Reiterating our @NatixisResearch @natixis call that the reaction function to Covid-19 has changed in EM Asia ex China and thus we have reasons to be optimistic about 2022 recovery. Indonesia just canceled year-end curbs!
wsj.com/articles/suppl…

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
7 Dec
This news is interesting of Instagram, which is toxic for eve, especially to young girls, as it feeds people sociopathic tendencies - narcissism. Why u say? Well, if Meta acknowledges that it creates toxic content & also has algos to keep people addicted, then the solution is...
We all know what the solution is: JUST TURN IT OFF. Like stop using the very thing that makes you sad, waste a bunch of time and basically turn you into a worse person because let's face it, taking selfies all day long is rather a sad activity.

But no, it's nudging for a break.
But not a real break is it? It says to look at something else on Instagram.

I mean, if you love your children, turn off their social media, that includes Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, Tiktok. Have you seen what they do to little girls & what they do to feel validated?
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
6 Dec
Ahead of Nov CPI release, China cut the well-flagged RRR cut by 50bps to release about CNY1.2trn of liquidity as liquidity starts to tighten. But even w/ this expected RRR cut, equities, both offshore & onshore sagged today on all sorts of issues. HSI was in a world of pain today
CPI is expected to rise in November but inflation is no longer the #1 concern (let's not forget PPI is insanely high in double digits, likely topped though) as growth & specifically liquidity more pressing.

And this leads to widening divergence between China & US monetary policy
US CPI out this week after likely higher China CPI & markets expect it to rise to a whopping 6.7%YoY from 6.2% & give plenty of reasons for why Jerome Powell dropped "transitory" & markets eyeing what the Fed will do on 15 December regarding CPI forecast & hence 2022 expectations
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
1 Dec
Rule #1: Buy what the Fed buys
Rule #2: Sell what the Fed stops buying

Sincerely,

@Trinhnomics
But note that while earnings are less important these days than the Fed, earnings represent economic fundamentals, as in macro.

And so the Fed can only sell in an upward economy, as in reducing the supply of liquidity when demand is high.

🤗🤗🤗
But the difference between US equities & say, EM Asia, is that US earnings are GLOBAL. US earnings reflect the US strength as well as global demand. When u sell US equities, u don't just sell on the Fed draining liquidity support but also u have to be bearish the US & global econ
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
1 Dec
It is never too late to make a U-turn on the wrong path, says a Turkish proverb.

And yes, Jerome Powell surprised markets after his Omicron comment (many thinks that is dovish) by speaking hawkishly about pace of tapering picking up!
Inflation is at 6.2%YoY, and no matter whether u think it is transitory or not, it is way past 2% mandate & way higher than zero policy rate.

CPI hasn’t peaked btw. Even if it slows, still high. Look at European CPI.

This isn’t just supply side issues, demand is strong
How do I know that? Very simple, we have the same issues here in Asia regarding supply shocks.

PPI off the chart. Have u seen China PPI?

But CPI weak. Why? Demand has been weak & so outweigh supply side shocks.

US CPI is a combo of demand & supply.

Fed is behind the curve.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
30 Nov
Kudos to the @RollingStone for uncovering a monster that the media has worked to normalize, including his attack on women & morality. The thing about art is that while it may be an expression of beauty, it can also be macabre or promotion of evil by normalizing and ELEVATING it. Image
The fact that this guy dresses like the devil, writes music that is immoral & acts immoral for decades have normalized the sexualization of women.

Btw, George Orwell wrote a great essay on this topic regarding the monster called SALVADOR DALI.

orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-fou…
Why do I say this? Salvador Dali is hailed for his surrealism but if u pay attention to his art and his life, the guy was a monster and his art celebrated and promoted it.

This is George Orwell review of Salvador Dali's autobiography & how he treated women since he was a child. Image
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
26 Nov
Korea's largest trade partner is China but don't let that fool u to think that its economic cycle depends on China's domestic demand. It's a supply chain story where Korea chips flow to China as intermediates that will then be exported to the US. Korean economy syncs w/ US demand
Korea's 50bps hike reflects stronger growth in the peninsula thanks to exports & not much disrupted domestic mobility (its strategy to Covid also similar to the US where it never went for Zero Covid).

US retail sales & Korean exports in %YoY. They correlate. US demand matters.
The hike was widely anticipated so the big question is what gives in 2022? More to come? See here on rates where SK rates expectations go higher w/ US rates while China slowing demand = easing expectations. Rates in SK follow US more than CH as relationship is a supply chain 1.
Read 7 tweets

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