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7 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
In the market for an Xmas present for the politics obsessive in your life? I have a couple of humble suggestions to offer. First, the definitive guide to the 2019 election - learn how the Boris-Brexit Con majority came to be. More on that here:
Or maybe a book that takes a broader view? Perhaps check out Brexitland, described by @LRB as "sweeping and rigorous", where @ProfSobolewska and I unpack how fifty years of social change have set the stage for the politics of today. More on that here:
@LRB @ProfSobolewska And a quote of the day thread highlighting some choice morsels curated by my co-author here:
@LRB @ProfSobolewska Or for the politics enthusiast in the market for a lighter read, may I recommend "Sex, Lies and Politics", a collection of 50 short essays lovingly curated by @philipjcowley and myself covering some of the weirder corners of the political mind: amazon.co.uk/Sex-Lies-Polit…

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford Profile picture
7 Dec
Today's Politics Live featured a heated arg over Channel crossings, with Paul Mason accusing Cons of racism, and 2 Con panellists angrily rejecting the accusation. As @ProfSobolewska & I explain in Brexitland this is a classic example of a polarised "politics of racism" argument
@ProfSobolewska The charge of racism is incredibly polarising because (1) There is a very broad social consensus on rejecting racism and stigmatisin racists (2) There is no such consensus over the definition of racism
@ProfSobolewska Thus we repeatedly see arguments like today, when identity liberals like Mason seek to attach the stigma of racism to policies they dislike, while identity conservatives contest the charge, arguing it is unfair and politically motivated
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
6 Dec
This is doing the rounds but I'm really not sure we can conclude much/anything from it. People aren't good at estimating large numbers, or proportions of large numbers. It is a task that requires some thought, and survey respondents don't have an incentive to think hard 1/?
2/? If you give people a hard question and no incentive to do the work, they will substitute an easy question. In this case, "what am I aware of that the government spends money on?" People are aware of the NHS, net zero and MPs' pay, so they score high
Pensions and benefits are low salience in debate, so that scores low. Also, note how many things average around 10% - a low effort heuristic number probably used to convey "I think they spend quite a lot on this, but no idea how much precisely".
Read 8 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Dec
Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election today. Labour would need a 21 point swing to take the seat. Some historical context:

Lab Con by-elec loss - Chesham & Amersham - swing 25.2 pts

Last Lab by-elec gain from Con - Corby (2012) - swing 12.7 pts
Other swings in post Brexit Con defences:
Brecon & Radnorshire (2019) - 12 pts (lost)
Sleaford & N Hykeham (2016): -0.3pts (won)
Richmond Park (2016): 21.7 pts (lost)
Witney (2016): 19.3pts (won)
Average swing against Con across all post-Brexit by-election defences: 15.6 pts

There were also huge swings against the Cons in 3 2014 by-elecs, the last defences before Brexit:
Rochester & Strood - 28.3 pts (lost)
Clacton - 44.1 pts (lost)
Newark - 15.5 pts (won)
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
2 Dec
Couple of interesting things about this:
1. Con MPs discriminate by region of origin much more than public do - more positive about Aus imms than voters, more negative about Pakistan imms than voters
2. Lab MPs systematically more favourable towards imms from every region than the public are, except Aus. But gaps vary:
Poland +27
Pakistan +20
France +19
Aus -2
Pakistan
3. There is a tendency to favour groups but the strength of this tendency varies and the groups preferred also vary a bit:
Cons: Aus 73, Fra/Pol 29, Pak 3 (diff 70 pts)
Lab: Fra 57, Pol 50, Pak 35, Aus 33 (diff 24 pts)
Public: Aus 35 Fra 28 Pol 23 Pak 15 (diff 20 pts)
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
30 Nov
Will have to check but I think last time we had this pattern - Labour narrowly ahead on imm, but most voters thinking neither party good on the issue - was in 1960s pre-Enoch Powell. Cons had massive lead on the issue from Powell to Cameron, May's net imm target destroyed that
Cons then remained ahead, but by narrower margin, because Labour figures were extremely low having fallen from a low base during new Labour years (when imm rose to the top of the agenda). Cons return to govt, and fading of Brexit, looks to have finally ended that advantage.
But this is not a return to 1960s, pre-Powell immigration politics because several things have changed fundamentally, making the issue v different now:
1. For first time ever,many people see *not enough* imm/overly restrictive controls as a problem (never before seen in polling)
Read 9 tweets
Rob Ford Profile picture
26 Nov
A quick thread with some of the slides/key messages from my presentation at the launch of The British General Election of 2019, in particular for those unable to see the presentation live due to technical glitches
The context of the election: both parties collapsed in the polls in the wake of Theresa May's repeated failures in the Commons in Spring 2019; frustrated Leave voters defected to Brexit Party, frustrated Remainers to Lib Dems and Greens
The conclusion Conservative MPs and members came to was that of Prince Falconeri in Di Lampedusa's classic "The Leopard" - "If we want things to stay as they are [i.e. Con govt leaving the EU], things will have to change." @briancartoon here illustrates the political maths
Read 16 tweets

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