Look at the #COVID19 wastewater signal for Greater Boston, which tells us where cases are heading next week. It has NEVER been this high, even at last winter's peak. And vax rates in MA are generally higher in Greater Boston. And this is likely before #Omicron. Action now #mapoli Image
We have a choice:
1) Indoor mask mandate, all-out effort for boosters and vaccinations in vulnerable communities, expansion of testing
2) Do nothing, and watch as health care system is overloaded and families are devastated before the holidays

@MassGovernor, what say you?
And for those who argue cases don't matter any more, only hospitalizations and deaths - hospitalizations are at highest level since February, and today was the first day with 50+ deaths reported since March. So we are decidedly not "decoupled".
The good news here is that, unlike December 2020, we have all of the tools to drive this back down - effective vaccines, powerful boosters, readily available N95s, approved at-home tests, etc. The question is whether we will make it easy for all to use those tools.

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More from @jonlevyBU

17 Sep
1. Hi! Trained risk assessor here. Can we talk about this “1 in 5000” risk of getting #COVID19 if you are vaccinated, all of the things that are wrong with the number and how it is being used, and why I still think there is some value in the calculation? 🧵
2. First, for those unfamiliar, this first appeared (to my knowledge) in a column by @DLeonhardt in the @nytimes. He estimated a 1 in 5000 risk from stats in a few settings (UT, VA, WA). Let’s assume that his number is right. I still have a few major problems with it.
3. First, it is a daily risk, which is not how we commonly quantify risk. The column did say this directly, so it is not hidden from the reader, but many people dropped that nuance in talking about the number. Probably too much headline reading and not enough article reading.
Read 22 tweets
14 Sep
Anyone patting themselves on the back about how we have handled #COVID19 in MA should periodically look at this chart and the profound racial/ethnic disparities. #mapoli Image
Our analyses showed that communities with higher % Latinx populations had sustained elevations in case incidence across the first 8 months of the pandemic, even after controlling for other factors.

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
The Latinx population in MA also has among the lowest % vaccinated (56%) among racial/ethnic groups in the state.

mass.gov/doc/weekly-cov…
Read 5 tweets
25 Aug
1. Both MA and VT target 80% vaccination rate in schools to remove mask mandates. Let’s be clear that this isn’t about herd immunity. For one, 80% doesn’t get you there - if R0 = 6 for delta and vaccine efficacy is 90% (both generous assumptions), it would be 92.5%.
2. Also, a school isn’t a “herd” (though it sometimes feels like one). Students and staff go home and interact with people outside of school.
3. Pure speculation, but I would guess that 80% just felt like a reasonable target consistent with overall vaccination rates. And therefore unmasking is a “prize” for schools that hit the target.
Read 6 tweets
5 Aug
1. I've been frustrated with how #COVID19 cases among the vaccinated have been reported, and I feel like it can be done better. I'm not an expert in this space, but I wanted to toss out some thoughts to #epitwitter and see if some collective wisdom could emerge. 🧵
2. First, to be clear, this is about public presentation of data in the media, not optimal study design to determine vaccine efficacy. My premise: Reporting just number of "breakthrough" cases lacks context, and "breakthrough" cases divided by number vaccinated lacks meaning.
3. So what is meaningful? Starting with cases, I'd argue that new cases per 100,000 vaccinated vs. new cases per 100,000 unvaccinated is a good starting point. CA does this - for the past week, it was 7 for vaccinated and 33 for unvaccinated.

cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/D…
Read 12 tweets
26 Feb
Let me make sure I understand - with data (below) showing that #COVID19 is no longer declining in MA, with the more infectious variant increasing, and the goal to open schools in April, we are opening restaurants on Monday at full capacity with musical performances? #mapoli
Here are some recent studies (graphics borrowed from @EricTopol) which reinforce risks associated with in-person dining 👇
At least we prioritized vaccinating food service workers to make sure we protected this vulnerable population before reopening.

Oh, wait...
Read 6 tweets
7 Feb
1. Just celebrated 20 yrs as a professor this week, so I’ve been thinking about life in academia.

I have only one piece of advice - know yourself, use that to figure out what success means to you, and find people who will help you achieve that success.

Let me explain... 🧵
2. You will meet a number of potential mentors along the way. Some will be lousy. Some will be good but will guide you toward their notion of success. The great ones will ask you first what you want to achieve, and strategize with you about how to get there.
3. There are so many dimensions of academia. Do you want to devote most time to teaching? Research? Administration? Why? And what would it mean TO YOU (even if not to others) be successful in each area?
Read 11 tweets

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