Feel its important to dispel a few myths about the military aspects of the situation. First, that a real military buildup would have the element of surprise and this is so visible that it can't possibly reflect worst intentions. That's just not correct. 1/
Russia can deploy a large force, with prepositioned equipment, for months. Then add logistics and conduct an operation on short notice. The posture retains the element of surprise. Ukraine cannot know the timing of the operation and can't afford to mobilize too early either. 2/
Current unit positions do not necessarily reflect final unit positions. They are being moved about. Russia can move these units back and forth for months. And yes this does appear to be a much more covert deployment, contrary to what some political analysts think. 3/
The notion that if Russia wanted to concentrate forces for an attack we wouldn't know about it is inane. There's no magical way to gather 50+ BTGs without it being highly visible in 2021. That doesn't mean you cannot retain key elements of surprise and mask intentions. 4/
As several news stories have revealed, disposition and relative size of the force may be known, but key indications and warnings may not be observed. These could reveal the timing and potential scope of operations, but they would arrive on short notice. 5/
Coercive diplomacy is analytically the 'safer bet.' But folks should be careful in interpreting that based on notions about current military activity. On the contrary, if you wanted to deploy a large force, retain the element of surprise, and make intent difficult to discern...
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