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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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8 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Boosted with Moderna! #GetBoosted
I celebrated with a bag of Wotsits on my walk home
so far (6 hrs later) no side effects. Must be the wotsits
update: about 34 hours later and I'm fine - a bit tired and arm pretty sore (and has been for about 16 hours). I have been grumpy all day though which I am totally blaming on the booster.

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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
10 Dec
THREAD: Am going to post some clips of my interview just now with @SkyNews which hopefully will explain a bit more about omicron, UK and what we can do...

and I address *that* xmas party

1. Is it ok just cos it boosters should protect against severe disease?
2. importance of isolation if you are a household contact! and need for support...

England should follow Scotland in this.
3. And the government will *not* struggle to get measures through - the CRG are a minority and there is a large parliamentary majority for doing more. That is comes from other parties should not stop govt from doing the right things.
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
6 Dec
THREAD on exponential growth, Omicron & what we might see in England over next few weeks.

In Gauteng province SA, cases (now almost all Omicron) have been growing at 25% a day for last three weeks.

Omicron rapidly increasing here, at roughly similar rate (so far). 1/12
Boosters might well slow it down, and vax + booster should reduce severe illness, but even a small percentage of large number can be a very large number.

And no reason to think Omicron can't sustain 25% daily growth here for at least a few weeks (*in absence of measures*). 2/12
Meanwhile, Delta is actually increasing slowly at the moment in England - Omicron might not replace it straight away, so much as co-exist and overtake it.

Sajid Javid said 276 sequenced cases of Omicron in England to date - all would likely have been infected pre 1 Dec. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
1 Dec
Short thread on case growth in Gauteng province, SA.

I compiled daily reported cases in November from sacoronavirus.co.za/category/daily… and had a look at growth...

TLDR pure omicron growth there looks pretty scary. We do NOT yet know how it will translate here. 1/7
Just plotting daily reported cases (dots) and the rolling centred average shows rapid increase in cases last few weeks of November. Blue dots are weekend reporting effects (Sundays and Mondays).

But for exponential growth we really need log scales... 2/7
Same chart on log scale looks like 2 periods of exp growth - one slower in 1st half Nov & then faster in 2nd half. Can interpret as period when Omicron gaining dominance over Delta (so smaller % of cases) & from 15th purer Omicron growth (now considered >90% of Gauteng cases) 3/7
Read 8 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
26 Nov
Very quick thread on UK covid situation:

TLDR: boosters going well now, cases rising particularly in children, admissions & deaths dropping 1/5
First vaccination: boosters now in about quarter of population - NI is a bit behind other nations.

Very good booster coverage in over 70s - would be great to get it higher.

Significantly lower uptake in more deprived areas.

Teen vax ongoing (slowly). 2/5
Second cases: cases climbing in UK. Over 50K again today. By date of test, climbing in NI & England and falling (a little) in Wales & Scotland. But positivity rates falling in NI so could be more testing.

Slightly diff picture from ONS with nations either rising or flattish. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
26 Nov
Some thoughts about Nu and bad timing, benefit of delaying spread & what we should do... 1/5
First timing: a new dangerous variant arrives just before millions of people across world start travelling internationally for Christmas holiday period - not good.

Millions of people travelling within and to US this week for Thanksiving just as variant announced - not good. 2/5
Second: Delaying spread: UK won't keep it out forever. But delaying has large benefits.

We're currently boosting almost 2.5 million people every week. Even a few weeks delay is millions more vulnerable adults with extra protection. That matters. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
25 Nov
THREAD on the new variant B.1.1.529 summarising what is known from the excellent South African Ministry of Health meeting earlier today

TLDR: So much uncertain but what *is* known is extremely worrying & (in my opinion) we should revise red list immediately.

This is why: 1/16
The South African Ministry of Health had a live streamed briefing today on the new variant detected there.



The variant was identified this week and has been found in three countries so far: Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong (returning traveller). 2/16
In South Africa it has been detected in Guateng province - positivity rates in Tshwane (part of Guateng) have increased massively in the last 3 weeks from less than 1% to over 30%.

3/16 Image
Read 17 tweets

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