THREAD: Am going to post some clips of my interview just now with @SkyNews which hopefully will explain a bit more about omicron, UK and what we can do...

and I address *that* xmas party

1. Is it ok just cos it boosters should protect against severe disease?
2. importance of isolation if you are a household contact! and need for support...

England should follow Scotland in this.
3. And the government will *not* struggle to get measures through - the CRG are a minority and there is a large parliamentary majority for doing more. That is comes from other parties should not stop govt from doing the right things.
4. I was asked if public would adhere to measures after that party. And I said public has been consistently more responsible than govt and talked about *that* party.
5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
Sorry - but no.
BUT govt needs to then support the hospitality industry immediately - as they have done before.

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More from @chrischirp

12 Dec
THREAD on UK covid situation, Omicron and what's happening...

TLDR: Omicron increasing very fast and we are getting increasing evidence of significant ability to infect previously infected or vaxxed people.

Expect UK response to change rapidly in response. 1/10
First, UK cases are climbing, back to near January pandemic peak levels. Scotland and England are rising fastest in recent days.

In England, London is rising faster than other regions.

Cases highest in 5-14 yr olds but rising fast in 20 somethings recently... 2/10 ImageImageImageImage
As of end last week, people in hospital going down everywhere except England, where admissions are now going up, driven by 18-64 year olds.

Unfortunately, if cases go up sharply in next few weeks, admissions will follow. By how much is the question... 3/10 ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
11 Dec
Quick thread on some omicron thoughts with @BBCNews today.

1. At population level, Omicron's sheer growth advantage is likely to outweigh any reduction in severity from existing immunity, at least in short term. More covid patient to NHS -> less NHS for everything else.
2. We can do more and we should do more - but how much more is the really hard question.
3. But *when* govt might do something is much harder to answer because Christmas is round the corner. If this were any other time, I suspect we'd there would be more public health measures in place already.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
Boosted with Moderna! #GetBoosted
I celebrated with a bag of Wotsits on my walk home
so far (6 hrs later) no side effects. Must be the wotsits
Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
THREAD on exponential growth, Omicron & what we might see in England over next few weeks.

In Gauteng province SA, cases (now almost all Omicron) have been growing at 25% a day for last three weeks.

Omicron rapidly increasing here, at roughly similar rate (so far). 1/12
Boosters might well slow it down, and vax + booster should reduce severe illness, but even a small percentage of large number can be a very large number.

And no reason to think Omicron can't sustain 25% daily growth here for at least a few weeks (*in absence of measures*). 2/12
Meanwhile, Delta is actually increasing slowly at the moment in England - Omicron might not replace it straight away, so much as co-exist and overtake it.

Sajid Javid said 276 sequenced cases of Omicron in England to date - all would likely have been infected pre 1 Dec. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
1 Dec
Short thread on case growth in Gauteng province, SA.

I compiled daily reported cases in November from sacoronavirus.co.za/category/daily… and had a look at growth...

TLDR pure omicron growth there looks pretty scary. We do NOT yet know how it will translate here. 1/7
Just plotting daily reported cases (dots) and the rolling centred average shows rapid increase in cases last few weeks of November. Blue dots are weekend reporting effects (Sundays and Mondays).

But for exponential growth we really need log scales... 2/7
Same chart on log scale looks like 2 periods of exp growth - one slower in 1st half Nov & then faster in 2nd half. Can interpret as period when Omicron gaining dominance over Delta (so smaller % of cases) & from 15th purer Omicron growth (now considered >90% of Gauteng cases) 3/7
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov
Very quick thread on UK covid situation:

TLDR: boosters going well now, cases rising particularly in children, admissions & deaths dropping 1/5
First vaccination: boosters now in about quarter of population - NI is a bit behind other nations.

Very good booster coverage in over 70s - would be great to get it higher.

Significantly lower uptake in more deprived areas.

Teen vax ongoing (slowly). 2/5
Second cases: cases climbing in UK. Over 50K again today. By date of test, climbing in NI & England and falling (a little) in Wales & Scotland. But positivity rates falling in NI so could be more testing.

Slightly diff picture from ONS with nations either rising or flattish. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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