Briefing on Pfizer/biontech neutralisation studies has begun. 19 or 20 seras (why don't they know which?!)
1/x
Stark - v stark - difference between two and three doses. Three looks almost as good.
Is this analagous to delta? It escaped one dose, but was pinned down with two. Omicron escapes two, but cornered by three.
"We expect significant protection against omicron in those who have received the third vaccine" - Sahin
This looks good? T-cells largely unaffected. 80 per cent of epitopes don't contain mutations. "We believe that T-cell responses induced by vaccination will still be active"
First data I've seen on variant vaccines. "What we have observed is booster dose with variant vaccines in people received two doses of pfizer induces strong neutralising antibody responses equal or higher than those observed with boosting wild type." Look at Alpha
Summary here:
"Due to presence of B and T cell memory....we expect that two doses of our vaccine may still induce protection against severe disease." -Özlem Türeci
Plan to deliver an omicron specific vaccine by March
"Data from omicron from heavily endemic regions, different age distriubution. We have to wait 2-3-4 weeks to understand severity in europe" - Sahin
On variant vaccine. "Several million doses in first month. How relates to main capacity TBD"
Worth noting as several have pointed out, other studies are less rosy.
1. Alpha, the Kent variant. In November of 2020, amid a national lockdown, cases started rising in Sheppey. Everyone thought it was just people in Sheppey doing Sheppey things. Turned out it wasn't. It was a 50 per cent more transmissible variant
And on this edifying note, I'm signing out of twitter. I'm off on much-delayed paternity leave. I was meant to do it last year, but decided to delay until the pandemic was over. Not tweeting until the autumn.
In the meantime, everyone is cross. Here is covid stuff that's great:
The variant technical group, with @meera_chand , @jcbarret, @PHE_uk and others. Absolutely stunning. Basically mathematical witchcraft, calculating all the crucial efficacy and transmissibility data on the fly, amid massive uncertainty google.com/url?sa=t&sourc…
Sage has released its reasonable worst case scenarios for winter resurgence, as envisaged in July. Looks like we are teetering towards the unreasonable worst case scenarios...
They were especially worried about: schools and universities, importation from holidays abroad
One key recommendation for mitigating it: better support for those isolating
Of all the pieces I've written on coronavirus, this is perhaps the most surprising. Vaccine researchers are *still* wasting time writing grant applications rather than getting on with work. 1/x thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccin…
CEPI, who fund eight candidate vaccines, run out of money in a couple of weeks.
It is entirely possible we will get a working vaccine, but because of a lack of funds to research scaling up production, we won't be able to make it.
The UK government has just published its scientific evidence and it's....amazing gov.uk/government/gro…
Risk of public disorder. "agreed that large scale rioting is unlikely. It is rarely seen in these circumstances. Acts
of altruism will predominate, and HMG could readily promote and guide these." assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
A modern keep calm and carry on:
"Promote a sense of collectivism: All messaging should reinforce a sense of community, that
“we are all in this together.” This will avoid increasing tensions between different groups "