Sage has released its reasonable worst case scenarios for winter resurgence, as envisaged in July. Looks like we are teetering towards the unreasonable worst case scenarios...
They were especially worried about: schools and universities, importation from holidays abroad
One key recommendation for mitigating it: better support for those isolating
There's been talk about seasonality, and whether sage ignored it. Their view seems to be: we don't know, but staying inside in winter will make things worse.
A key worry about what might lead to the worst case scenario?

"The economic cost of further interventions may mean that these happen too late."

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More from @whippletom

25 Mar 20
Of all the pieces I've written on coronavirus, this is perhaps the most surprising. Vaccine researchers are *still* wasting time writing grant applications rather than getting on with work. 1/x thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccin…
CEPI, who fund eight candidate vaccines, run out of money in a couple of weeks.
It is entirely possible we will get a working vaccine, but because of a lack of funds to research scaling up production, we won't be able to make it.
Read 5 tweets
20 Mar 20
The UK government has just published its scientific evidence and it's....amazing gov.uk/government/gro…
Risk of public disorder. "agreed that large scale rioting is unlikely. It is rarely seen in these circumstances. Acts
of altruism will predominate, and HMG could readily promote and guide these." assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
A modern keep calm and carry on:

"Promote a sense of collectivism: All messaging should reinforce a sense of community, that
“we are all in this together.” This will avoid increasing tensions between different groups "
Read 18 tweets
16 Mar 20
Best guess 35-50k people infected.
(currently infected)
"Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity.

If I was to guess, it is quite likely to happen"
Read 16 tweets
16 Mar 20
The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk
Updates came after seeing Italy - and proportion of patients in ICU
"We will be in quite different world for year or more"

Neil Ferguson - Imperial.

There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.
Read 15 tweets
13 Mar 20
I've spent past day chatting to virologists and epidemiologists about the UK policy on #Covid_19

I think it's important to get across both the plurality of views and the uncertainty.

If you're about to post a strong opinion, bear in mind few of them express such clarity 1/x
A range of quotes:

"It's a calculated gamble"
"It's very, very difficult"
"It's not just governments divided, we are too."
On the "might be good to do more front", there are those looking to China.
Read 7 tweets
8 Apr 19
19 years ago a kurdish refugee living on food stamps in Nottingham turned up in the university and asked, in broken english, to see a maths professor.

Last month I went to see him - after he won the maths equivalent of the Nobel Prize. 1/n

thetimes.co.uk/article/cauche…
He almost convinced me his route to the Fields Medal was mundane
But normally mathematicians don't have their education interrupted by the Iran-Iraq war.
Read 6 tweets

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