And on this edifying note, I'm signing out of twitter. I'm off on much-delayed paternity leave. I was meant to do it last year, but decided to delay until the pandemic was over. Not tweeting until the autumn.
In the meantime, everyone is cross. Here is covid stuff that's great:
The variant technical group, with @meera_chand , @jcbarret, @PHE_uk and others. Absolutely stunning. Basically mathematical witchcraft, calculating all the crucial efficacy and transmissibility data on the fly, amid massive uncertainty google.com/url?sa=t&sourc…
Cog-uk - in march 2020 a bunch of geneticists wondered how they could help. They set up the first system in the world to track genetics of a pathogen in real time across a country. Some people thought it was pointless, then the Kent variant came along... thetimes.co.uk/article/how-br…
This chap, who got the Pfizer jab, after inventing its lipid delivery system 50 years earlier. He didn't tell the nurse
Comix. Right right right at the start, John Edmunds and others at @LSHTM realised we needed to know what social distancing was doing. They came up with a survey with a simple aim - to ask people how many people they spoke to the day before.
Sage: they work for free, knowing that half the country hate them. They didn't want this, and there are a lot of good people doing 18 hour days thetimes.co.uk/article/we-ris…
Indy sage, and @Sir_David_King . They pushed early for transparency, when it was needed.
The modellers. They predicted a large wave 1 when some said we had herd immunity. They predicted a large wave 2 when many said it was over. They predicted a large wave 3 when perhaps most did.
And everyone hates them.
I'm sure there are loads more,!
Oh I forgot, @ONS and react from @imperialcollege , with @SRileyIDD . Of course it's completely obvious we needed a random population infection survey. Yet most countries have none. We have two. Thanks for all your nice messages!
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Sage has released its reasonable worst case scenarios for winter resurgence, as envisaged in July. Looks like we are teetering towards the unreasonable worst case scenarios...
They were especially worried about: schools and universities, importation from holidays abroad
One key recommendation for mitigating it: better support for those isolating
Of all the pieces I've written on coronavirus, this is perhaps the most surprising. Vaccine researchers are *still* wasting time writing grant applications rather than getting on with work. 1/x thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccin…
CEPI, who fund eight candidate vaccines, run out of money in a couple of weeks.
It is entirely possible we will get a working vaccine, but because of a lack of funds to research scaling up production, we won't be able to make it.
The UK government has just published its scientific evidence and it's....amazing gov.uk/government/gro…
Risk of public disorder. "agreed that large scale rioting is unlikely. It is rarely seen in these circumstances. Acts
of altruism will predominate, and HMG could readily promote and guide these." assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
A modern keep calm and carry on:
"Promote a sense of collectivism: All messaging should reinforce a sense of community, that
“we are all in this together.” This will avoid increasing tensions between different groups "
The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk
Updates came after seeing Italy - and proportion of patients in ICU
"We will be in quite different world for year or more"
Neil Ferguson - Imperial.
There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.