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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
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8 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The Harrisburg area 😬 Image
not surprisingly, the first two complaints on the portal are about CDs 6 and 11 app.mydistricting.com/legdistricting…
Proposed PA-8 is Trump by just over 8 points, while PA-7 matches the state (Biden by 1.2%). Image
Biden's share in PA-6 drops from 57% to just over 53%, while the trades on Montgomery County push PA-1 very slightly rightward (bumping Trump's share from 46.6% to 47.0%). Both districts were Clinton/Toomey in 2016. Image
PA-17 would be hard for Dems to hold -- Trump 52%-47%, though Shaprio carried it by about that. Image

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More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
9 Dec
Four gubernatorial rating changes from @kkondik and me today:

MD: Leans D -> Likely D
MN: Likely D -> Leans D
NV: Leans D -> Toss-up
NM: Likely D -> Leans D

Also, notes on some races we *didn't* change over here: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar… Image
And a reminder:
We note in the article that we have a pretty broad Leans D category: MI is closer to the Toss-up end of that, but, say, MN is closer to Likely. In an great environment, Rs could flip most (maybe all) of those, but they still have work do in some of them.
Read 5 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
16 Nov
OH-9 is a bit friendlier to Kaptur than in some other drafts; it would be Trump by about 4% last year.
Corday +3, Brown +16, Trump +2 (2016)
30 years ago, that OH-14 would be a great seat for Dennis Eckart.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
15 Nov
i dont think (Phil) Scott runs for Senate, but this pic is a lot of my TL todat
As I was saying:
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
14 Nov
In the Lake Charles area, Jeremy Stine held State Senate District 27 for Rs -- he improved on Trump's margin by a few points. There are a few swingy precincts west of the city, but this is a pretty polarized seat. In 2019, JBE made the red areas look less red. #lagov #lalege Image
As @WinWithJMC says, Calcasieu Parish used to be a no-man's land for Rs 20-30 years ago.
This is pretty noisy (given the much lower turnout tonight) but Stine = red, Trump = blue. Stine clearly did better in Lake Charles proper. Image
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
7 Nov
The Charlottesville metro area -- home to the @Center4Politics -- voted about 8 points less Dem this year than in 2017 (D+24 to D+16). McAuliffe also netted about 4K fewer votes out of the area than Northam, though he did gain in higher-growth parts of Albemarle County. #VAGov
T-Mac gained votes north of Cville, off of Route 29 -- just from driving through there routinely, I've noticed a lot of new development. The blue precincts on the third map also follow I-64 to the western part of the county, where the Crozet area is seeing something similar.
Not the best labeling, but reminded me how in the 2017 Dem primary, Perriello's strength (gold) in NOVA followed the major highways (50, 66). Guessing he did relatively well w/ the younger, transient demo (basically me at the time, as I was in Loudoun County) that commutes to DC.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
21 Oct
Not saying I 100% buy into this, but I do wonder if there's a certain subset of VA voters who are just against the concept of giving McAuliffe (or any ex-governor) another term. Partisanship may still override something like that, though.
Then again maybe a counterpoint to this is Kaine and Warner keep getting reelected statewide.
I forget who it was, but someone on here was talking about the 1940 election and the no third term for FDR movement— got me thinking that this would somewhat be the Virginia equivalent. But, of course, FDR got his third term.
Read 5 tweets

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